Thread by @jonworth

An issue in the post-election diagnosis is really nagging at me

Please take this thread *seriously* - it is an attempt at genuine understanding, and intends to attack no one

The question is this: if Labour's Brexit position were wrong, what position would have been better?

We know Brexit did matter as a reason for people to switch from Labour - less than the leadership question - but it did still matter

This from Friday from @OpiniumResearch is handy

Remember that:
- 82% of Labour's members were pro-EU (@ProfTimBale research)
- a majority of Labour's voters at the 2017 election were pro-EU (@chrishanretty @robfordmancs)
- 70% of the constituencies that Labour won in 2017 had pro-Brexit majorities of voters

Imagine Labour had taken a more explicitly pro-Brexit position. "We do not like this Deal, we will change it, but we will still go through with Brexit"

How would that have played?

- it'd still not have been as compelling as "Get Brexit Done"

- most Labour members would have detested it

- it might have helped save Labour in Don Valley or Bolsover, but Labour would wave goodbye to Putney or Cardiff North

- the Lib Dems would have done a *lot* better in this case

Imagine Labour had taken a more explicitly pro-EU position "We want a second referendum, and we will campaign for Remain in that referendum"

How would that have worked out?

- Labour members would have been happier

- Chances of holding Don Valley or Bolsover would have been even lower. Places like Newport West might have gone too?

- Labour would have done better in inner London and the London commuter belt

- Lib Dem vote would have been squeezed much further

There may be ways to model this (@chrishanretty wdyt?) but my provisional conclusion was Labour was *screwed* whatever its Brexit position had been here

Which then, of course, brings us back to the other issues... and especially Corbyn.

I am not sure Labour had the wrong policy on Brexit. But I am damned sure the main person responsible for communicating it would have just been happier if Brexit had disappeared as a problem, rather than with gusto defending the policy.

So in the next few months when the likes of Burgon or Flint say that "ah were it not for Brexit we would have won" ask them what policy would have been better, and how that would have played better. This thread might help with that.

/ends