Thread by @shaunjlawson

Sometimes, the best election analyses come from those outside the country - whose distance gives them detachment and enables them to think things through coolly. Here's one such analysis in Spanish, which I'll summarise.

other-news.info/noticias/2019/…

The piece asks why the working classes voted in such droves for the Tories, and strongly challenges the idea that Labour's platform was excessively leftist. It does this by noting the popularity of many of Labour's policies.

Per YouGov:

- 64% agree with raising taxes on those earning more than 80K a year

- 56% support renationalising the railways, water and energy

- 54% support the employees of a company occupying a third of its executive board

- 81% back an increase in health spending of 4.3%

- 73% agree with the minimum wage being set at £10/hour

- 59% support a Green New Deal.

In other words, writes the author, Labour's platform scared the wealthy... but nobody else.

The writer turns his attention to Brexit. In 2016, about half those on higher incomes supported it, as did about half on lower incomes. But among the working class, those who voted for it tended to be unemployed. This meant a relationship between income level and backing Brexit.

The writer condemns, utterly, the all too easy portrayal of Brexit voters as being ignorant, poorly educated or lacking in culture. As he says, it's MUCH more complicated than that.

Other countries have had referendums related to the EU too: on the European Constitution.

- In France, 79% of manual workers, 67% of service workers and 98% of union workers voted against.

- In the Netherlands, 68% of the working class did

- In Luxembourg, 69% of them did.

Moreover, even in countries which haven't had a referendum, in surveys:

- In Germany, 68% of manual workers and 57% of service workers opposed the Constitution

- 72% of manual workers opposed it in Denmark

- 74% of manual workers and 54% of service workers opposed it in Sweden

And further: which groups strongly support the EU? Employers' organisations, big capital, middle and upper middle classes: educated professionals in particular. Why is this?

Let's take the UK. Since we joined the EU, there has been a serious decline in the proportion of income derived from work: which is even more pronounced within the eurozone.

But at the same time, the salaried professional sector saw its pay rise considerably.

This hugely exacerbated social polarisation: with the upper middle class cosmpolitan 'elite' (or so they're so often referred to) benefiting from globalisation, freedom of movement etc, while the working classes have suffered. Hugely.

They have experienced:

- Lower salaries
- Ever worsening working conditions
- Loss of the social safety net
- Huge cuts in public spending

This naturally leaves them against globalisation. Or to put it another way: what they're against is NEOLIBERALISM.

What do they also profoundly fear? Loss of identity. Insecurity reigns - so with their opposition to globalisation comes support for nationalism. Even, in some cases, for the far right. It's not because of racism. It's because the system DOESN'T WORK FOR THEM.

The far right has even made inroads in, of all places, Sweden. Again, precisely because of the forces of neoliberalism and their appalling consequences.

The British establishment (the City, big business, the professional middle classes) supported the EU. The working classes opposed it... and their opposition is entirely logical. The only way of stopping this would've been a total reversal in the EU's policies.

Of course, I'd interject here that the UK, outside the euro, has always had full sovereignty and has made its own political choices. The horrible, disgusting genius of the Tories has been to blame those policies on the EU.

But the bottom line is this. The working classes have seen no benefit from freedom of movement. No benefit from the single market. And under neoliberalism across the West, growth is completely decoupled from living standards. So why would they support a huge bulwark of that?

It's an absolutely fascinating analysis, of interest to all Labour's leadership candidates. Please share it far and wide if you can.

cc: @AaronBastani @graceblakeley @AyoCaesar @OwenJones84 @paulmasonnews @chakrabortty

@AaronBastani @graceblakeley @AyoCaesar @OwenJones84 @paulmasonnews @chakrabortty Of course, I'll keep banging my progressive alliance drum as loudly as I can - compassonline.org.uk/why-we-despera… - but MASSIVE thanks to @VicencNavarro for a really superb piece of analysis, which flies in the face of all conventional wisdom.

Muchas gracias Prof Navarro! 👍