Thread by @Peoples_Pundit

1. Think the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Polling is starting to paint a pretty clear picture. Elizabeth Warren has faded and Bernie Sanders has a much better chance than "pundits" and "forecasters" have given him.

Joe Biden's national lead is fundamentally weak.

2. Inside Joe Biden's national lead, he is nowhere near Hillary Clinton in terms of minority support, which extends ONLY to black Democrats. He is not at all strong with Hispanic Democrats, a not-so insignificant number of which support Bernie Sanders.

Why is that noteworthy?

3. Nearly 3 in 10 nonwhite Democratic primary voters have already pulled the lever for Bernie Sanders. That was something real for him to build on from 2016.

Hillary's support was MUCH more firm, enough to sustain a loss or two in early states ahead of more diverse primaries.

4. Hillary Clinton was also a far more prolific fundraiser than Joe Biden. Bernie Sanders always took the ground money, while she took the big money. But Biden isn't particularly good at raising either.

Ultimately, using a gimmick & Martin O'Malley, Hillary won Iowa Caucuses.

5. It was a squeaker, but she won it and it softened the loss in New Hampshire. Her win in South Carolina wasn't enough to take Nevada off the competitive table, and her support among Hispanic Democrats was stronger than what we see for Joe Biden.

He can't safely lose IA & NH.

6. Nevada nearly embarrassed Hillary Clinton, and that was a field of two, a different calendar and she enjoyed stronger minority support overall than Joe Biden.

Bernie Sanders isn't "just now" reaching out to those voters. Same is true in Arizona.

If I'm the Biden Campaign...

7. If I'm the Biden Campaign, I would feel the need to win Iowa like Hillary Clinton. A "good showing" is a risky and dangerous strategy.

The calendar is different. If they split early states he could EASILY lose California to Bernie.

That's not debatable anymore. It's reality.