#democratic primary: It's 12/1 and just over 2 months to the IA caucuses. So what the heck is going on in this primary that's being conducted in the middle of a constitutional crisis? Well, the bottom line is that young voters are steadier in their preferences than older voters.
Taking @surveyusa polling from Aug-Nov, we see that the 18-34 vote has barely moved for Warren (-1), Pete (+1), Biden (+2) and Harris (-1). For Bernie, there was a big drop of -10 from Aug to Sept, but has since stabilized at 35, highest of any candidate in that demo.
Among 35-49 voters, since Aug, Liz is +2, Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Joe (-5) and Harris (-4). Among 50-64 voters: Warren (+2), Pete (0), Bernie (-1), Biden (-4), Harris (-5). Among 65+: Warren (-13), Pete (+7), Bernie (+2), Joe (-4), Harris (-5).
What does this tell us? The Warren-Pete battle is being fought almost exclusively among 50+ voters. Warren lost 23 points among 50+ voters from Oct-Nov, but Pete picked up 13 pts. Yet, Warren's losses are bigger than Pete's gains, suggesting a bigger driver than Pete's cmpgn.
Biden has experienced fairly steady drops above voters >34. He had very high starting points so some of that may be expected. However, further drops from Joe could spell trouble in the early states if one of the other candidates catches fire over the same time period.
Bernie is not well liked among voters >50 (7% among 50-64 and 8% among 65+ voters in Nov) but has a solid vote share among voters < 50. Still he is a far cry from the dominance of the 18-34 vote from '16. He needs Joe's share among older voters to erode to be able to beat him.
Harris experienced a general decline in her numbers, but honestly, she'd be a double digit candidate if all age demos were as steady for her as the 18-34 demo. She has dropped 10 points from 50+ voters, only 1 pt among 18-34 and 4 points among 35-49 over the past 4 months.
So what's driving 50-64 (largely white) voters? My theory is that older voters are looking for a candidate & message that they believe will sell with others in their demo & one they can push to friends and relatives to keep them from voting Trump/GOP. It's the persuasion factor.
The agenda they want is one that aligns to what won elections for Dems in 2017-19: a center left policy agenda w/no show stoppers (e.g., single payer). Another thing they want is a candidate with good salesmanship skills who doesn't focus on what they view as distracting issues.
Harris and Warren fell in and out of favor with 50+ voters for broadly similar reasons. For Harris, her raw talent, debating skill, ability to stick it to Trump resonated. However, she got distracted by food fights w/Joe & Tulsi, + a tortuous road on HC, so they tuned her out.
Warren resonated based on salesmanship, impeachment, and consistent messaging. She fell out of favor when impeachment was taken over by Pelosi, her agenda came under scrutiny and then she focused on issues that were distracting or show stoppers: banks, billionaires & single payer
Pete has grown with the 50+ group because he has opportunistically retrofitted his msg from an initially liberal, millennial friendly approach to a 'not left' approach. I can't say that Pete really stands for anything other than that he is 'not left'.
Pete's approach is safe & has no showstoppers, so he has had some recent success. But what of Joe & Bernie? 50+ voters think Bernie's 'chicken in every pot' agenda is too far left for the GE. For such a high name ID, he should poll better than single digits among 50+ voters.
Joe has a very solid & high baseline, but there's more erosion than growth, as Pete's success among 50+ voters has shown. Pete is useful to Joe in the early states as a blocker v. EW, but there comes a point where continued growth by Pete among older white voters could hurt Joe.
Despite his growth, Pete hasn't optimally positioned himself to pick up all of Warren's drop. There may be room to grow but his struggle to grow with younger voters and POC voters suggests that his potential is more limited than the lofty recent state polls from IA/NH suggest.
For Harris, she has a good balance of white, black, Latino/other voters, and an agenda and demeanor that lines up with 50+ voters, but she needs a general lift in support to make an impact (tv ads would help). If gets that lift, then she can catapult to where Warren has been.
For Warren, her issue is that her policies are viewed as misaligned w/what 50+ voters believe is a winning agenda. Even ideas that people generally like (wealth tax) are not considered priorities for the electorate. Still, if she can retool her msg, she might get a 2nd look.
The dominant theme of 50+ voters is that they're volatile, have no firm commitments to any candidate, and are quite likely to flip on a dime. That said, it would be a mistake to say they don't know what they want. They do, but just haven't found the candidate that clicks yet.
The chances of Joe Biden winning the 50+ demo decisively increase as these voters work through other candidates and find them insufficiently ready or too risky. That said, there's still a sale to be made and all will have to earn it.
