New Iowa Caucus poll out today (BTW, this poll is done by very talented, & only slightly handsome, political scientist @daveamp). N=632, online sample, partial panel, which allows them to monitor preference changes among a sub-group). Buttigieg 24% and Sanders 21% leading &
essentially tied (MOE is 4.9) w Warren at 18% (so within the MOE with Sanders but not Buttigieg. Biden at 15%. The panel data reveals that unlike support of other candidates, Sanders supporters are essentially immovable, he has kept 96% of his Sept supporters. Unless that changes
Warren will not be the nominee. Her momentum not only stalled, but reversed and although she is still in the top tier and competitive for the nomination, the durability of Sanders' support has choked off any hope of additional growth for her. Indeed, Warren only retained 75% of
Sept support, while Buttigieg has retained 85%. His biggest problem? Biden has retained 93% of his supporters. This is also high. However, January 2nd marks the start of the "real" Caucus period. The movement of the Caucus back to Feb has definitely decreased the attention reg
voters are paying to it. January is going to be an exciting month as the rest of the electorate finally starts to tune in. news.iastate.edu/news/2019/12/1…
