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New @CDHoweInstitute report out today on AB's MinWage. Recommend reading. cdhowe.org/public-policy-… I have some thoughts. 1/n #ableg
2/ First, it's a nice overview of various theoretical effects, positive and negative, of the MinWage hike. And has useful data.
3/ But, since its result that MinWage increase may lead to "the loss of 25,000 jobs" is the headline-grabber, I'll focus on that.
4/ The report uses a credible empirical estimates: for each 10% increase in real MinWage, employment of 15-24 year olds drops 1.7%.
5/ This number is mainly from onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ec… but it may not be correctly applied. There are two main problems.
6/ While the increase from $10.20 to $15 is 47%, we must adjust for inflation between 2014-18. The real MinWage increase is more like 38%.
7/ This factor alone brings their 25k loss estimate to 20k.
8/ Next, Broshu and Green find different elasticities for 15-19 year olds than 20-24 year olds. -0.25 for former, -0.05 for latter.
9/ These elasticities, along with inflation adjusting, bring the 25k loss estimate to 15k. Here's a table. 
10/ More generally, is there evidence that the recent MinWage increases lowered employment? Not yet. I've checked two ways.
11/ First, new MinWage shifted jobs across wage distribution. Gains at/above min similar to losses below. (Though may be diff people) #ableg
12/ Second, employment of those 15-24 fell by similar amount as in SK. Suggests oil shock mattered much more than MinWage increases. #ableg
13/ Finally: a $15/hr Min isn't "substantially above" other provs (as report says), since AB wages are higher. Here's a common comparison.
14/ Of course, none of this implies MinWage increase is good or bad -- that's a separate question for another time. </fin>
