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Important (and sobering) post from @drvox. The world is extremely unlikely to limit warming to 1.5C, but that doesn't mean we should give up hope. vox.com/energy-and-env… 1/4
If we had started reducing emissions back in 2000, 1.5C would have been achievable. Today it requires a 15% reduction per year, at least barring the deployment of global-scale negative emissions late in the century that don't exist at any meaningful scale today. 2/4
Energy models that get us to 1.5C get around this cliff by removing a ton of emissions from atmosphere, starting quite soon. Its hard to see this happening, and dangerous to bet on it. This figure shows positive and negate emissions in 1.5C scenarios. carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-t… 3/4
At the same time, climate change is more of an issue of degrees than thresholds. If 1.5C is out of reach, we should try our best to limit warming to 2C. Its never too late to avoid the worst damages of climate change, because higher the warming the worse the damages. 4/4
For more on the climate impacts at 1.5C, 2C, and beyond see this amazing bit of interactive data visualization from @CarbonBrief: interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climat…
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