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We're halfway thru the NBA season, so as promised, a quarterly check-in of how our new NBA metric (RAPTOR) is performing vs. Vegas.

It's good news for RAPTOR, which remains on pace to have more accurate team win projections than Vegas. We're pretty excited about this. 🦖🦖🦖
The Lakers, which RAPTOR has come around on but we were bearish on in the preseason, remain our big Achilles' heel. Still, as you can see above—which sorts teams by how much our projections differed from Vegas—RAPTOR is winning most of its big "bets" (OKC, SAS, NYK, MEM, etc.)
RAPTOR also seems to be doing well vs. the other statistical systems we're tracking; however, I'd note that PIPM from @JacobEGoldstein is also having a really good year. bball-index.com/current-pipm/
You can always find our latest RAPTOR team projections here:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predi…

And the latest RAPTOR player ratings here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-playe…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Hey folks, in the interests of full transparency:

We discovered and fixed a small bug in our primary model this morning. Specifically, our model was supposed to have accounted for home states/regions when projecting bounces, e.g. Buttigieg would get a smaller IA bounce...
…other things equal, since he's from the Midwest. We found this improved accuracy in estimating bounces historically.

However we had a sign reversed in our code😳, so instead of giving slightly *less* credit to a candidate from the region winning, it was giving slightly *more*.
This was modestly hurting Biden, who wasn't benefiting from home region effects as Buttigieg/Klobuchar in IA or Sanders/Warren in NH. With the fix, Biden's overall delegate majority chances improved from 41% to 45%, with the gains coming variously from the other candidates. FIN
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If you wanna know whether there is still time for significant polling shifts in Iowa, the answer is basically yes. On the equivalent date in 2016, Trump had 33% of the vote in the RCP average and finished with 24% (-9%), while Rubio had 12% and finished with 23% (+11%)
Also big shifts in 2004, where Kerry & Edwards surged and Gephardt & Dean collapsed late, and in 2012, where Santorum's surge came almost entirely in the final 5-6 days.
The possibility for late swings doesn't necessarily mean that there would be a *reversal* of current trends. They could also mean that Bernie winds up with 37% of the vote or something huge, etc.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Don't quite get why Biden hasn't hit Sanders with a fairly straightforward "Bernie is too far left" set of arguments. It might work—lots of Ds say they want a more moderate nominee and/or think a moderate is more electable. It might not. But if not...
...it might still be a good test for Sanders of the sorts of arguments he'd surely face as the Democratic nominee against Trump.
p.s. "Candidates perceived as 'too far' left/right do somewhat worse electorally, other things held equal" is among the few electability claims that *does* have some empirical backing.

Although other things frequently aren't equal & Sanders has an interesting electability case.
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