Worth discussing a bit more what happens if these deadlines aren't hit:
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As the graphic and @DavidHenigUK's thread discuss, there are various deadlines in the Political Declaration and Withdrawal Agt for assorted elements of negotiation, plus many more without specific deadlines
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@DavidHenigUK Both documents contain good faith provisions (Art.135 PD; Art.184 WA), which require both parties to try their best to fulfil obligations on the future relationship
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@DavidHenigUK As long as parties can demonstrate they are taking reasonable efforts to meet those obligations, then that's as far as it goes: none of the elements within the future relationship MUST be agreed, either by any specified deadline or indeed at all
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@DavidHenigUK To go back to our discussions of last year, the PD is an intention, not a commitment, because until the parties try to negotiate, they don't know if they can actually reach agreements on these intentions
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@DavidHenigUK Thus, the mid-2020 deadlines on financial services and on fisheries could pass without agreement and unless someone's arguably breached good faith (which is a barrel of worms by itself), then things trundle on
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@DavidHenigUK But that caveat
There is a consequence if elements of the negotiation aren't concluded by the end of the transition period
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There is a consequence if elements of the negotiation aren't concluded by the end of the transition period
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@DavidHenigUK Under the WA, the UK retains all rights and obligations (minus representation and voting) of EU membership during the transition, so non-agreement in this time means 'no-change'.
However, post-transition, it means the equivalent of 'no-deal'
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However, post-transition, it means the equivalent of 'no-deal'
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@DavidHenigUK As such, all that stuff you learnt about 'no-deal' last year still can apply: failure to conclude particular elements of negotiation means current (membership) arrangements come to an end, to be replaced (mostly) by nothing (unless there are other international frameworks)
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@DavidHenigUK It's all a bit like Art.50: there's time to try and agree terms, but if not, it doesn't stop the process
The difference is that there's a lot more ground to be covered, a lot less time, and rather less agreement about what's desired
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The difference is that there's a lot more ground to be covered, a lot less time, and rather less agreement about what's desired
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@DavidHenigUK Finally, there's also a difference in enforcement, since the UK will no longer be within the EU.
That means cases to international courts, which will be both much slower than CJEU referral and with less power to apply penalties
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That means cases to international courts, which will be both much slower than CJEU referral and with less power to apply penalties
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@DavidHenigUK So, in short, there are deadlines to agree things, but the main/sole incentive will be to avoid 'no-deal' gaps at the end of transition
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