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My estimates of eligible citizens who *didn't* vote in 2016, non-whites vs. whites w/o college degrees (in thousands):

AZ: 904 / 684
GA: 1,303 / 1,172
TX: 4,274 / 2,665
-------
FL: 2,565 / 2,566
MI: 643 / 1,564
MN: 259 / 786
NC: 834 / 1,105
PA: 695 / 2,290
WI: 306 / 819
While we're at it...

IA: 90 / 612
ME: 34 / 207
NV: 325 / 387
NH: 25 / 220
OH: 580 / 2,051
FWIW, I arrived at these estimates based on an amalgamation of the Census's various 2016 CPS data.
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More from @Redistrict see all

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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Big: the new map the #NCGA just passed is an insurance policy for Dems' House majority. It effectively gifts Dems two additional seats in 2020 (#NC02 & #NC06).

And, a pending Dem lawsuit against it could put one *more* seat in play, giving Dems/Pelosi even more insurance.
So why are Dems suing to invalidate a new map that converts a 10R-3D map to an 8R-5D map? Because they have nothing to lose: a map drawn by a special court-appointed master would only get even better for them vs. the remedial map just drawn by the GOP-led #NCGA.
The key region in dispute? Fayetteville, Robeson Co., & the Sandhills. The new R-drawn map still divides Dem votes there between #NC08 & #NC09 to protect two R incumbents who live in the far-away Charlotte suburbs.
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
THREAD on races to watch & how to roughly interpret tonight's results:

1. Dems are having a bad/terrible night if they: lose #KYGOV, #MSGOV, fail to take over the VA House of Dels. and only muster a 20-20 tie in VA Senate by picking up #SD13

(unlikely)
2. Dems having a weaker-than-expected night if they:

Lose #KYGOV & #MSGOV

Win VA Senate 21-19 by adding: #SD10 (Sturtevant)

Win VA House of Dels. 51-49 by flipping #HD91 OPEN (Helsel), #HD94 (Yancey) but nothing else
3. Dems having a good (but not terrific) night if they:

Lose #KYGOV & #MSGov

Win VA Senate 23-17 by adding: #SD07 OPEN (Wagner), #SD12 (Dunnavant)

Win VA House of Dels. 53-47 by adding: #HD42 (Hugo), #HD76 (Jones)
Read 5 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Here's why the "let's win without working-class whites" mentality doesn't hold water for Dems. That demog comprises 45% of all eligible U.S. voters, but:

61% in Wisconsin
61% in New Hampshire
56% in Michigan
56% in Minnesota
56% in Pennsylvania
47% in North Carolina

Good luck.
Dems' backslide w/ these voters is the main reason IA (66%) and OH (60%) have already exited stage right off the EC battleground, and why a Dem nominee who performs even worse w/ them could risk losses in ME (66%), NH (61%) or MN (56%).
Dems' path to beating Trump absolutely depends on retaining the gains they made in diverse, college-educated burbs - the kinds we saw in 2018 & #NC09.

But even a slight drop among white non-college voters could negate all of it, given the demog's size & geographic distribution.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Virginia Heffernan
@page88
Wtf HAPPENS to whites w/o college, in your view? Do they:

1. Get chips on their shoulders?
2. Learn no history & so vote for tyranny?
3. Do unskilled labor & think DJT legit addresses their needs?
4. Didn't mix w/lib snobs & so have trad values?
5. Lack immunity to disinfo?
new options
6. Lack the wherewithal to light off for college, which says something about their pre-existing levels of fear & xenophobia?
7. Are simply not very bright?
8. Distrust institutions?
9. Tend to be autodidacts who, w/o guidance, turn to junk info & conspiracy theories?
10. Are stuck in poverty?
11. Believe that dropouts like Zuckerberg are the real Ayn Rand heroes & only chumps take on student debt to read Maya Angelou and suck their thumbs in safe spaces?
Read 5 tweets
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Alec MacGillis
@AlecMacGillis
Some pretty eye-opening numbers in this piece on the plummeting share of white workers without college degrees in the workforce, as a result of demographic change and economic forces, over the past decade. Highly relevant to our current political debates. democracyjournal.org/magazine/53/ra…
"The number of employed white high school graduates plummeted by 4,854,694 from January 2008 to August 2018, a 16.9% decline despite nine years of economic expansion—while the number of employed non-white high school graduates increased 3,343,341, or 27.2% over the same period."
"The economy shed nearly 7. 7 million jobs between January 2008 & January 2010 but then restored those jobs from January 2010 to April 2014. The changes in the makeup of employment occurred through the destruction of 7.7 million jobs followed by creation of 16.5 million jobs..."
Read 6 tweets
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My Info
@wavedancer43
@Ilhan Neither is it humane to our fellow citizens & legal immigrants to allow immigrants into our country w/o properly testing them for communicable diseases, ppl w/ criminal backgrounds & children w/o immunizations. And, I'm just talking about those attempting to enter along a 6,000
@Ilhan mi. border. These ppl are coming in in #'s so great all at once in many instances. You work in Congress so you tell me why Congress doesn't cooperate with additional funding to hire more ppl, build or renovate facilities like the one Trump has ordered for a one time military
@Ilhan base to house children. We cannot possibly get all these ppl into courts with judges, once they have been scrutinized & found eligible to wait for the proper immigration court
to hear their cases in a timely manner. The immigrants are given orders for that to occur usually 3
Read 8 tweets
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Alec MacGillis
@AlecMacGillis
This new piece by @dblock94 on why it's in the political self-interest of coastal liberals to care about regional inequality is so damn good that I’m going to shamelessly quote from it at some length here. washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/janua…
1) We talk a lot about growing income inequality between classes. But inequality is also growing between cities: “In 1980, the per capita income in the richest 10 percent of metro areas was 1.4 times greater than in the poorest 10 percent. By 2014, it was 1.7 times greater.”
2) In the 1960s, the 25 richest cities in the country included Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Des Moines. In 2018, “20 of the top 25 were on the East or West Coast. Seven are in California. Minneapolis, which clocks in at number 24, is the only entrant from the entire Midwest.”
Read 20 tweets
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Joseph Stalin
@StalinIsBack
1/8 My favorite #quote by #JosephStalin, which explains the scientific, #DialecticalMaterialist explanation of true freedom in material reality, not just as an abstract ideal. #StalinIsBack #StalinLives #JVStalin #Stalin #StalinQuote #StalinQuotes #Truth #MELS #MarxismLeninism
2/8 Having an #objective, #rational, #ScientificSocialist, #Dialectical, & #Materialist viewpoint allows us to accurately see & evaluate & analyze #Truth & #Reality as they truly materially exist in this universe.
3/8 An idealistic, dogmatic viewpoint, which capitalists have, however, makes one irrational enough to 'see' freedom where freedom stays trapped on a piece of paper while people are oppressed in their actual lived lives.
Read 586 tweets
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Ryan James Girdusky
@RyanGirdusky
New Fox News Poll takeaways:
#Trump approval rating 46-51
- among Union Households 52-45
- college educated whites 48-49
- non-college whites 59-38
- Indies 40-48
Approval of the economy
- 53-43; whites 60-35; whites w/ college 57-38; Clinton voters 20-76
Approval of immigration
- 43-55; women 35-62; Trump voters 85-12
Approval of #SCOTUS
- 45-46; Catholics 48-43; White Evangelicals 60-25; Conservatives 75-10
Interested in the 2018 election
Extremely: Dems 54%; GOP 47%; Indies 26%
Clinton Voters 54%; Trump Voters 49%
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Tulsi #Britain #RussiaDerangementSyndrome #Poll #JP #Communism #USEmpire #ZW #RESISTERS #SAR #Bernie #GA #corruption #WarCrime #BorderCrisisHumanTrafficking #Derna #Sexist #genocidal #AntiColonialism #Hama #KimJongUn #NBCFakeNews #Pavlichenko #DemDebate2 #Iran
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