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THREAD on races to watch & how to roughly interpret tonight's results:

1. Dems are having a bad/terrible night if they: lose #KYGOV, #MSGOV, fail to take over the VA House of Dels. and only muster a 20-20 tie in VA Senate by picking up #SD13

(unlikely)
2. Dems having a weaker-than-expected night if they:

Lose #KYGOV & #MSGOV

Win VA Senate 21-19 by adding: #SD10 (Sturtevant)

Win VA House of Dels. 51-49 by flipping #HD91 OPEN (Helsel), #HD94 (Yancey) but nothing else
3. Dems having a good (but not terrific) night if they:

Lose #KYGOV & #MSGov

Win VA Senate 23-17 by adding: #SD07 OPEN (Wagner), #SD12 (Dunnavant)

Win VA House of Dels. 53-47 by adding: #HD42 (Hugo), #HD76 (Jones)
4. Dems having a better-than-expected night if they:

Win #KYGOV

Lose #MSGov

Win VA Senate 24-16 by adding: #SD08 (DeSteph)

Win VA House of Dels. 56-44 by adding: #HD28 OPEN (Thomas), #HD66 (Cox), #HD83 (Stolle)
5. Dems entering "Blue Tsunami" territory if they:

Win #KYGOV & #MSGov

Win VA Sen. w/ 25+ seats by adding: #SD11 (Chase) and/or #SD17 (Reeves)

Win VA House of Dels. w/ 57+ by adding any of: #HD27 (Robinson), #HD30 (Freitas), #HD62 OPEN (Ingram), #HD84 (Davis), #HD100 (Bloxom)
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More from @Redistrict see all

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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Here's why the "let's win without working-class whites" mentality doesn't hold water for Dems. That demog comprises 45% of all eligible U.S. voters, but:

61% in Wisconsin
61% in New Hampshire
56% in Michigan
56% in Minnesota
56% in Pennsylvania
47% in North Carolina

Good luck.
Dems' backslide w/ these voters is the main reason IA (66%) and OH (60%) have already exited stage right off the EC battleground, and why a Dem nominee who performs even worse w/ them could risk losses in ME (66%), NH (61%) or MN (56%).
Dems' path to beating Trump absolutely depends on retaining the gains they made in diverse, college-educated burbs - the kinds we saw in 2018 & #NC09.

But even a slight drop among white non-college voters could negate all of it, given the demog's size & geographic distribution.
Read 6 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
There are dozens of talented, smart and objective election/polling analysts who don’t get nearly enough attention.

If you’re not following @aedwardslevy, @JessicaTaylor, @databyler, @TexasTribAbby, @leahaskarinam, @julia_azari, @ClareMalone, you’re doing 2020 wrong.
More awesome journalists/analysts I didn’t have space to fit in the first tweet: @nathanlgonzales, @baseballot, @geoffreyvs, @ellawinthrop, @juruwolfe, @allymutnick, @MadelainePisani, @JMilesColeman. And so many more I’ll add to this list soon.
A few other smart analysts who deserve more follows: @kkondik, @rarohla, @nataliemj10, @mcimaps, @ChazNuttycombe, @KyleTrygstad, @PoliticoScott, @emilymbadger. Most of the folks on these lists don’t engage in a lot of self-promotion so I’ll try it for them.
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
My latest: how Trump could lose by *5 million+* votes and still win reelection (guess @Nate_Cohn and I are thinking alike today). nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
@Nate_Cohn A big reason: the demographic change fueling Dems' national edge is most robust in the states that matter *the least* in the Electoral College - esp. CA & TX.
@Nate_Cohn The 2020 nominee could expand Clinton's CA margin by 1.2 million votes & slash Trump's TX margin by 800,000 - and still not be rewarded with a single additional Electoral College vote.

But the demographic transformation fueling Dems in those states isn't as present in MI/PA/WI.
Read 7 tweets

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21. Israel's regime is the biggest threat to peace in the world
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மழை வருது என்று, #நாமக்கல் தங்கம் மருத்துவமனை சுவருக்கு பக்கம் நின்ற மருத்துவர் கலா, சுவர் இடிந்து விழுந்ததில் மரணம் என்ற செய்தியை பார்த்தவர்களுக்கு அம்மருத்துவர் பற்றி முழுமையாக தெரிந்திருக்க வாய்ப்பில்லை. சேவையில் உச்சம் தொட்ட எளிய மருத்துவர் கலா👇👇 #Thread #DrKala #Namakkal
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Aabhas K Maldahiyar 🇮🇳 🇮🇳
@Aabhas24
#Thread on #Hindu #Hinduism & #Hindutva. I saw this as an imprudent need & hence the thread as below cc @vivekagnihotri @RatanSharda55 @Sanjay_Dixit @_NAN_DINI @GitaSKapoor @sankrant @DikshitSmita @Shubhrastha 👇🏼Pic: Trimurti Sadashiva sculpture on Gharapuri Island
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GreatGameIndia
@GreatGameIndia
#THREAD
Today Pink Legacy diamond from platinum necklace donated by Maharaja of Mysore to Tirumala Tirupati Temples known as 'Leonardo da Vinci of Diamonds' was auctioned by Christie's at Geneva despite our letter to PMO & temple mahant's warnings. But how did it reach there?
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