[Thread] Where are US-Pakistan ties at? Here are a few angles to consider. 1/n
Today Trump and Khan met in Davos, and the post-meeting remarks suggest continued improvement in ties and that US policy continues to soften. Trump brought up Kashmir, which given his upcoming India trip is interesting. @clary_co offers an interpretation:
Not to say the bad blood & anger at Pakistan in the US gov't has gone away -- or will go away easily. For example, here is a recent senior CIA official saying Pakistan has as much American blood on its hands as Iran:
Among specifics (something I wrote here as well: washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…), I think 5 issues are key, and possibly each of them has contributed to improved ties: 1) Afghanistan 2) terror 3) economy 4) nuclear weapons 5) China
Re Afghanistan, US seems *ok* with Pak role on the peace process. In 2017, concern was that Pakistan will not "induce the insurgents to negotiate seriously": hudson.org/research/13305…. But Pakistan pressured/convinced, due to which deal looks likely: reuters.com/article/us-usa…
On terror, US officials maintain doubts but cautiously note Pak has moved against anti-India groups. Read seems to be there is no crackdown but less willingness to use them? Note there has been no major violent incident in J&K or mainland India since 370.
On economy, US gov't seems pleased with its FATF+IMF strategy, that it is hitting the sweet spot. The logic may be that FATF blacklisting threat is keeping Pak honest & due to IMF Pak is undertaking adjustments that may create conditions for a stepped-up economic relationship.
The nuclear weapons issue set is important, hard to observe, but one the US gov't cares about a lot. Back in 2015, @SangerNYT reported Obama admin was negotiating an agreement (nytimes.com/2015/10/16/wor…), potentially involving production cap, cuts on tactical nukes...
...of specific types, and reining in range of long-range missiles. Nothing has changed for the US to stop wanting such a deal. I wonder if there has been movement on that?
Also, is US gov't sensing an opportunity to pull Pak back from the Chinese embrace? Given new national security strategy and potential of China militarizing the Indian ocean, managing Pakistan's alignment with China has growing salience. So there might be a China angle.
What has Pakistan received in return? Given the economic downturn, possibly the desire to mend ties with the US is up. More obvious things include listings of TTP & BLA, bailouts from Saudi Arabia & UAE on US prod, silence on military interference in pol, & Kashmir mentions.
Here is the "never been closer" bit from the Trump-Khan exchange today: n/n
