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Might as well reschedule this to the 4th of July because if it happens, they'll be no need for any other fireworks
FYI Judge Sullivan cites U.S. v Cray as the controlling standard for the circuit

In that case, a defendant pled guilty in front of the judge after a FRCP Rule 11 colloquy, then tried to withdraw his guilty plea. Even though the court denied it, it still held a two day hearing
Circuit court of appeals then affirmed the district court decision. Defendant went to jail, couldn't withdraw his plea.
So the good news - there probably will be a hearing where Flynn can make his case

Bad news - Sullivan is citing to a case that looks a lot like Flynn's, where the defendant tried to withdraw his plea, lost in court, lost on appeal, and stayed in jail.
There will be 3 main components that Sullivan will use when deciding whether to accept Flynn's motion to withdraw his guilty pleas. Flynn will need to satisfy all three.
1. Make a "legally cognizable defense" to the charges against him

This will need to be an *affirmative* defense of being *innocent* (not just not guilty), that is legally sound, as well as factually accurate. Flynn has never done this - yet - to the lying to FBI charge.
2. Show either "an error in the taking of his plea" or some "more substantial" reason he failed to press his case rather than plead guilty

That's going to be a very heavy burden, as there was almost certainly no error in the taking of the plea given the factual record.
Oh, and "more substantial reason" could be ineffective assistance of counsel, but that will have to go beyond counsel just not doing a good job - but egregious failures that had they not happened, would have caused Flynn to plead Not Guilty instead and go to trial.
3. If 1 & 2 are both shown, the Court will ALSO need to be satisfied that the Government would not be "substantially prejudiced" by the "delay in going to trial"

Flynn will have to show that the gov could still go to trial and not be adversely impacted - e.g. loss of witnesses
Conclusion: withdrawing a guilty plea is a tremendous uphill battle, but let's see how it goes

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