Thread by @charlesjkenny

My new book:

Close the Pentagon: Rethinking National Security for a Positive Sum World.

Paperback ($7.99) & e-book ($3.99) --please buy!

amazon.com/Close-Pentagon…

amazon.com/dp/1710611758

Blog and first chapter here:

charleskenny.blogs.com/weblog/2020/01…

Thread to follow.

Outline:
1.Battlefield war is going away
2.Good economic reasons why
3.’Military’ threats limited
4.Non-military threats up
5.DoD inefficient countering old threats....
6....And terrible for new challenges
7.So should restructure our foreign affairs budget

1.Battlefield war is going away

The argument as to a ‘new era of peace’ heated. N. Taleb would say no. Lots of others, including @sapinker say yes, and evidence mounting –see for eg

mn.uio.no/math/english/r…

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais in The Demise of Ares notes that no major power war has erupted since 1939 –unique in the post-Westphalian world.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua in Winning the War on War: “More wars are ending than beginning, once ended they are less likely to restart, and the resulting wars are more localized than in the past.”

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua Why less war? American hegemony? Bradley Thayer says yes: academic.oup.com/isr/article-ab…

“the US military is the earth’s ‘911 force’”

On the other hand, the US has also, and all too often, been an active belligerent, instigator or an impotent bystander in the wars that have occurred.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua Nukes=Peace? Todd S. Sechser & @mcfuhrmann find no evidence that nuclear-armed states were more successful than other countries at prevailing in those conflicts amazon.com/Nuclear-Weapon…

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann What about the ‘Kantian Peace’: a triad of democracy, economic interdependence and international organizations. Democracies don’t wage war against each other, nor do richer countries that trade, & international organizations help contain the conflicts.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann The Kantian Peace is far from a perfect explanation, but it fits a lot of the facts. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

The world’s countries are getting richer, average incomes >10x 1870. more interconnected: global trade 40x 1913. And becoming more democratic.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann W/r/t civil war @cblatts and @tedmiguel suggest the best predictors of conflict are low incomes and slow economic growth. Thankfully, # of low income countries worldwide 63 in 2001 to 31 in 2015.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel Global norms are (also) moving towards peace: “nationalism, territorial ambition, an international culture of honor, and indifference to its human costs –went out of fashion” in C20th notes @sapinker

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel And international cooperation to prevent or end wars works. @GoldsteinJoshua argues the explanation we need for the dramatic decline of war “would kick in mainly after 1945, and would accelerate after 1989.” -- peacekeeping fits the bill

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel 2.Good economic reasons why

One big factor behind spread of peace and peaceful norms: the last century has seen a dramatic change in drivers of national and global wealth from resources to technologies and institutions –from zero to positive sum inputs.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel Many wars used to be fought to control people or resources: both ideas have gone out of fashion. Neither large unwillingly annexed populations nor resource dependence are associated with wealth and power any more.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel As late as WWII, 2/3 of world lived on < $1.90/day. Per capita surplus available to state small, need more people for power. In 2016, IRS collected ~$28 per American per day in taxes ~15x total consumption of extreme poverty.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel Simple line between people and power broken.

World Bank estimates natural capital accounts for 9% planetary wealth. Resources no longer = power, either.(except in poorest countries, where remaining conflict is concentrated)

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel New technologies make resources more available. World oil reserves were 643 billion barrels in 1980, they are 1,656 billion barrels today. Transport advances => global trade in resources. We don’t need to fight over local supplies (Ruhr coal, eg).

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel In century before Kellog-Briand (1928), @oonahathaway and @scottjshapiro estimate an area equivalent to eleven times that of the Crimean peninsula was annexed each year, Since 1928, almost every piece of land conquered has been returned to the state that lost it

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @BrunoTertrais argues the invasion of Kuwait may go down in history as being the last great resource war. (Wars *will still happen* for other reasons –ideology, domestic politics, liberation—but economic factors help explain the decline in traditional battlefield warfare).

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro If not labor and resources, what makes for wealth/power? World Bank suggests 64% of global wealth accounted for by ‘weightless’ wealth: institutions, technologies, education...

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @bill_easterly and Ross Levine: 90% of difference in wealth/growth across countries over long term can be accounted for by ‘total factor productivity’ — again technology, ideas, and institutions.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro Technology, ideas and institutions are non-rival, not zero sum. Advance in one country => advance in others.

And connections => peace. @pbkpotter finds a “substantial negative relationship between international transit and multiple measures of interstate conflict.”

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter 3.’Military’ threats limited

On specific military threats @FareedZakaria right “the new China scare” alarmist. Regime commits massive, horrible human rights violations & seeks power in South East Asia, but it no new global hegemonic threat.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria China has extremely limited capacity to project power beyond region. Compare Soviet Union in Cold War: cia.gov/library/readin…
Again, China is a member of the WTO, the World Bank, the IMF... and deeply tied into global trading systems.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria The so-called ‘Thucydides trap’ (the inevitably of war between old hegemon and new upstart) lacks considerably in terms of empirical certitude (see UK and US), but also is about the US making a bad choice, not China.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria (Again: that war isn’t inevitable doesn’t make it impossible. Crazy people can still do crazy things. But secret is to reduce their capacity to act –bind countries into global order, limit war fighting capacity. Applies to China and US alike.)

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria What about new threats? cyberattacks? @RidT notes no cyber attack ever injured a person, seriously damaged a building.

Global database of disruptive attacks against critical infrastructure systems lists 1,182 caused by squirrels, 13 by jellyfish, only 3 by humans

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT On terror: @MaxAbrahms notes terrorism doesn’t work:“terrorist groups rarely achieve their policy objectives and... the poor success rate is inherent to the tactic of terrorism itself”

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth and Maria Steph (Why civil resistance works) find nonviolent resistance movements are twice as likely to succeed in their aims than violent movements

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth Meagan Smith and Sean Zeigler find outside of war zones, terror is on the decline: average number of terror attacks per year for countries out of conflict fell from 6.7 before 2001 to 3.1 after then journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth What about ‘failed states”? Numbers are declining not rising. Some datapoints. 1990: 15 wars (killing more than 1,000 people in battle each year) ongoing worldwide. That dropped to 7 in 2013

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth 1990 countries home to 28% of the global population had a GDP per capita of below $1,500 a year. By 2011, that had dropped to countries home to just four percent of the World’s people.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth Either our ‘failing grade’ has been getting ruthlessly higher over the past twenty five years or there are simply fewer failed states that there used to be.

4.Non-military threats up

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth What are bigger threats (beyond nuclear Armageddon)?

@mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes and colleagues estimate climate change would leave global GDP more than 7 percent smaller in 2100 than it would be absent global warming

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes (But idea that climate change => warfare weak. @BrunoTertrais “evolution of the climate is not an essential factor to explain collective violence”)

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes Disease: serious global flu pandemic would reduce global GDP by $500 billion because of death, illness and absenteeism. Reduced travel and connectivity would cut a further $1 trillion.

(see also: coronavirus)

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes Depression: Last global financial crisis cost the US about $23 trillion, according to @cmatthes_econ & researchers at the Federal Reserve

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ The threats we face to US wellbeing (and global wellbeing) are less and less about zero sum (resources, land) and more and more about positive sum, global commons issues where the military is simply an irrelevance.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ 5. DoD inefficient countering old threats....

US military still good at old role: capacity to destroy a large military force, even half way around the world from the United States, should be undoubted (see: Iraq War). But old role matters less.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ US military spending equals the next seven biggest spenders combined: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, the UK, India and Germany

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ Yet since WWII, the US has fought major wars in Korea, Vietnam, Kuwait and Southern Iraq, Iraq (again) and Afghanistan. Only the war to liberate Kuwait (reverse unpopular invasion) can be classed as a straightforward success

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ “War on terror” has cost ~2.8 trillion. But since 9/11, global terror attacks have been concentrated in the countries that the US invaded: Iraq and Afghanistan. Not reassuring.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY notes the military understands the limits of military power: “For years, almost every American general dispatched to command the Afghan war has conceded that the conflict must ultimately end with a political settlement”

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY Re. “protecting the shipping lanes,” @brooks_rosa asks: “Is the twenty-first century military the right institution to take on ragtag bands of impoverished Africans preying on private shipping?”

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa Rand study Estimating the Value of Overseas Security Commitments, funded and reviewed by the US Air Force, finds no relationship between US military presence or security agreements and the subsequent risk of that country falling into civil conflict or the severity of conflict

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa And DoD grossly inefficient. @klkidder and colleagues list ‘seven deadly sins’ of defense spending that added up to as much as $490 billion of waste/inefficiencies over 10 years. cnas.org/publications/r…

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa An example: In the ten years to 2013, the Department abandoned $46 billion worth of weapons programs that did not work or were overtaken by requirements

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa Robert Barro and @veroderugy estimate that each dollar cut in defense expenditures would increase private spending by about $1.30

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy 6....And terrible for new challenges

DoD even less efficient on non-core tasks, eg: it runs 58 schools in six US states, @ far higher cost than local schools. Buys drugs at an average of 60% above Medicaid’s prices according to GAO.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy So why is it leading R&D, for eg? Defense accounts for 58% of federal R&D expenditure in the US in 2011 (compare UK 15%, Germany, France and Japan < 7%.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy Yes, we got the Internet but see Vernon Ruttan: technologies invented “have been inordinately expensive” and spillovers increasingly limited b/c 4/5ths R&D on major weapons systems. amazon.com/War-Necessary-…

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy And not even its most loyal supporters would suggest the Pentagon is the part of the US government that should lead on efforts to avoid climate change or strengthen international health regulations, let alone stop the next financial crisis.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy 7.So should restructure our foreign affairs budget

Wherever possible, government functions should be moved out of not into the Pentagon. Other foreign policy tools work better.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy @Brettarosenberg and Jake Sullivan: “It has become ordinary, even orthodoxy, for national security professionals to lament how the underfunding of civilian tools has fueled an over-militarized foreign policy that is ill-equipped to take on today’s most pressing challenges”

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy @Brettarosenberg The Pentagon still has vital roles: to defend the homeland, reassure allies and patrol the seas. But silly that of the 2,079,000 *civilian* federal workforce in 2014, excluding soldiers, postal workers and contractors, more than 50% worked for DoD and Veterans’ Affairs.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy @Brettarosenberg Ridiculous that federal discretionary budget: 50% to military, 4% to international affairs (including State Department and aid spending) 3% to natural resources and environment spending, 2.5% to space, science and technology

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy @Brettarosenberg A five-year DoD budget target of 1.5 times the defense spending of America’s nearest competitor would => ~23% cut & free up about $150 billion. $100bn of that could raise US aid to 0.7% of GDP

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy @Brettarosenberg Long term goal: US military spending to reach the current global median: 1.5 percent of GDP (and at that point maybe we could close the Pentagon building –a powerful symbol of and inefficient, massive bureaucracy)

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy @Brettarosenberg Again, battlefield war *not* inconceivable, or permanently extinct. We can pick at strands of Kantian Peace. Trump Administration is doing precisely that. But trend is to peace and positive sum –we should double down on that.

@sapinker @BrunoTertrais @GoldsteinJoshua @mcfuhrmann @cblatts @tedmiguel @oonahathaway @scottjshapiro @pbkpotter @FareedZakaria @RidT @MaxAbrahms @EricaChenoweth @mattkahn1966 @KamiarMohaddes @cmatthes_econ @SteveCollNY @brooks_rosa @veroderugy @Brettarosenberg And nothing that has come before should be taken as an assault on the bravery, sacrifice or abilities of America’s servicemen and women. But those who suffer most from America’s military-first approach to foreign policy are the people serving in the military