1) Good work on GAN by @puppyeh1 @saharainvesting @GavinSBaker baker and others. Some incremental thoughts
2) Went through the disclosures on gaming spend by state for the ones that allow app-based betting outside the casino (Chart 1). Then I made some adjustments for the population as well as GDP per Capita for the individual states (Chart 2). And plotted them as cohorts (Chart 3).
3) Overall conclusions are that: states have all reacted fairly similarly to legalization - we can be fairly confident on the ramp and how much run-rate handle to expect for new states and that newer states are ramping faster than older ones which makes intuitive sense.
4) Charts 
5) Given the above + the legalization of CO / MI / IL + the company's view that launches in those states are highly probable 2020 events, I think it makes sense to also underwrite to the launch of those three states as a reasonable base case...instead of just modeling NJ + PA
6) Modeling this out gets you currently paying just under 7x FCF for the sports business with much more growth to come as only 20% of the population is covered in these states + rest of business for free
7) At these FCF yields, you could FCF back the entire enterprise value before the FD contract is even up for renewal (2024)
