Thread by @Usherwood

Let's have a quick run-down on What It's Like To Leave The EU, ahead of a weekend of "but they said..." tweets

1/

On Friday 31st, at 2300 UK time, the UK will no longer be a member of the EU

HOWEVER

You might not notice any real change in your life

2/

You'll still be able to use the EU line at the airport, you'll pay the EU rate for your postage stamps, your .eu website will still work

3/

On the news, you won't see queues at ports, disruption to supplies of food or goods, or any of that stuff 'they' told would happen

Why?

Because while we'll have left, we will be in a transition period

4/

Briefly put, this is a period when the UK continues to follow all the EU's rules, and has access to all the same rights, as when it was member, while negotiations on a new relationship take place.

But...

5/

One thing that will change is the UK losing its voice and vote in the EU.

No more MEPs, no minister in the Council, no judge on the Court, no civil servants negotiating technical aspects of legislation

6/

Instead, the UK gets to sit in on meetings where relevant legislation is discussed

Which isn't really the same

7/

Any way, the reason you're not seeing the chaos they some people talked about is that the UK and EU reached an agreement to have this transition in place while negotiations continued

However, this doesn't mean the potential for that chaos has disappeared

8/

The transition period is due to end at the end of 2020. If there's no new agreement in place by then, we'll see much of that chaos already mentioned, because the current arrangement just falls away

9/

There is an option to do a one-off extension (up to the end of 2022), but you still have to reach an agreement by the end of that to avoid the lapsing of current arrangements

10/

You can read up on the 'no-deal' scenario from before here (ukandeu.ac.uk/research-paper…)

Things would be similar, but a bit different this around

11/

The difference would come from the parallel nature of the new negotiations about to begin, which might allow for some partial agreements/arrangements to come into force at the end of transition.

Before, everything was bundled firmly together

12/

Also, because of all the time things have taken, firms might be better placed to cope with a cliff-edge at the start of 2021, reducing disruption.

13/

And, importantly, Northern Ireland will be covered by its Protocol arrangements, which will maintain close alignment with the EU (this is what we talked about as the 'backstop')

14/

In sum, Friday will see the UK leave, but leave with a (temporary) arrangement that avoids any substantial change to your daily lives.

However, that doesn't mean changes aren't coming, later on

/end