Thread by @StuartLothian

#OpportunityCost is the aggregate net cost of doing something, vis a vis 'not doing it' at all.

The initial project, option & prospect of #Brexit came with huge opportunity costs, which were too easily pre-discounted as #ProjectFear. 1/

The initial #Leave case, dramatised by the #BorisBus, contended that UK could save its £350m pw #EU 'gross membership contribution' and pass that 'saving' straight to the #NHS - as 'additional funding'. 2/

The #Leave case focused on saving UK's #EU gross membership cost in favour of #NHS.

It ignored regular #EU annual contributions back into a multiplicity of UK projects, which would obviously be stopped, if we ceased membership.
3/

#Leave's case completely ignored the foreseeable negative impact of UK leaving #EUsinglemarket, for firms such as Honda, Nissan & Toyota, who only manufacture within UK because we're INSIDE the vast EU single market of 28 countries. Three years on, we shouldn't be surprised! 4/

#Leave's exit case also ignored that major UK groups (eg Barclays Bank) would have to establish operations INSIDE the #EUsinglemarket to cover the envisaged status that UK would no longer be within it. Hence, Barclays' new Dublin Office! complete with staff/funds/EUbusiness. 5/

#Leave also ignored that each firm exiting UK on the #Brexodus trail, well covered by Edwin Hayward @uk_domain_names, would diminish UK GDP, employment & tax-take. The unarguably progressive secondary 'economic hit' from every high-pay evacuee is real! but hard to measure. 6/

@uk_domain_names Ignoring foreseeable downsides/costs of #Leave, they stuck with their unspecific claim: "We could trade freely, if outside #EU control"! The only option to have emerged, so far, is that of a trade deal with USA - to whom we ALREADY export goods worth $61 billion p.a. (2018). 7/

@uk_domain_names But guess what? USA already exports circa 10% more to the UK, annually, than we sell to them - and their aim from ANY trade deal with US would be more of the same! America FIRST! 8/

@uk_domain_names You only have to listen to American trade negotiators (on their trade team, not Trump!) to know that EVERYTHING would be 'on the table' in ANY USA/UK trade deal. That would include our #NHS & pharma products! 9/

@uk_domain_names IF any trade deal with USA is still first prize for #Leave supporters & #Brexiteers? - I really wouldn't want to see what 2nd prize looks like! 10/

@uk_domain_names If Yankee chlorinated chicken? or cheap hormone-treated beef? aren't your bag, maybe higher prices for your medication might clinch it? In reality, there's nothing in THIS for UK! other than Tory wet dreams of privatising bits (or all?) of OUR #NHS for USA corporate dollars. 11/

@uk_domain_names Despite 3+ years of asking, to no avail? Zero 'net tangible trade advantages' from #Brexit have EVER been identified by #Leavers & #Brexiteers? So their tune has changed to 'damage limitation' and 'tough it out'. So, WHY are we still doing this? to ourselves? 12/

@uk_domain_names So why #Brexit at all?
To reduce immigration?
- Now soaring from non-EU sources!
To make tax avoidance easier?
- By side-stepping incoming EU rules!
To facilitate disaster capitalists & sterling short sellers?
- Lots of whom back Tories, and stand to make fresh fortunes!
13/

@uk_domain_names Or could it be to serve our largely offshore? untaxed? unregulated? Media Moguls (eg Rothermere/Mail, Barclay Bros/Telegraph, Desmond/Express, Murdoch/Sun) who've been very busy propagandising AGAINST #EU (and ALL its many benefits to US mere mortals) ever since we joined? 14/

@uk_domain_names The above 'rag media' crowd (+ others at @BBCNews) are oblivious to the 2% GDP lost since 2014's high of 3.1%! The 'opportunity cost' of that drop alone is worth c.£45 billion to the UK annually. If we get the promised #NoDealBrexit? expect that 'opportunity cost' to >double. 15/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews Not to forget our stubbornly high visible trade imbalance (eg with USA as cited at 7&8 above). Even the lower £ has not made much impact on exports, since 2016's self-inflicted devaluation, but it has kicked into Imports, with more cost rises in the pipeline as stocks fall! 16/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews Spoiler alert: UK Exporters tend to pocket the benefit of a lower £ for themselves, rather than pushing more Exports, whereas Importers pass the additional currency costs 'right through' to UK consumers, EVERY TIME! 17/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews Much as @sajidjavid is rightly resisting completely unfunded new expenditure promises, being splashed around by our pre-election @10DowningStreet, we may expect State Debt to spiral ever-upwards, as it has done since @Conservatives took office! Austerity must have backfired? 18/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Despite fanciful Tory claims of an economic miracle? (wet dreams again!) UK productivity still lags the #G20 norm by some way! 19/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives So, with:
#GDP falling (since 2014!)
#TradeGap still negative
#Productivity low
#StateDebt spiralling
#Sterling weakening
#Inflation set to rise
#TaxTake under threat from 100's more firms joining #Brexodus (sucking #GDP from UK) We're SET for #NoDealBrexit? Like Hell We Are! 20/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives #Brexit's Opportunity Cost is huge! I make it >£150bn. so far:
#Less GDP (since 2016 & falling)
#Asset Impact (Property/£/FTSE)
#Emergency Govt.Spend & #ExtraBorrowing
Less #TaxTake given #Brexodus (see @uk_domain_names for 100's of instances so far)
#Confidence crashed! 21/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives And the #Economic #Trade #Business #Fiscal #TaxTake #NHS #PublicServices benefits are what? We know the 'Opportunity' has numerous 'Costs'! But what about the benefits? It's nearly too late after 3+ years of asking! But what about these benefits of #LeaveOct31? Please tell! 22/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives There are also incalculable human costs attributable to this episode of needless national self-harm! Millions of lives have been turned upside down through #Brexit, in UK and in #EU27, in SO many ways! Lives directly & indirectly impacted by a Misery it's impossible to cost! 23/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Also, there's the benefit of 75+ #EU FTA trade deals (in addition to #EU27!) where we have easy access, today, from which we'll soon be excluded! Growing nations as diverse as Vietnam, Canada, Korea, Japan - that we can trade with NOW and with whom we'll have to start afresh! 24/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives 'Opportunity Costs' include net new costs of (any) change + all benefits foregone = the aggregate to set against the ££upside that we're trying to obtain! And what IS that? A good deal? No way! 25/

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Resting my case with the argued view that 'Opportunity Costs' of Brexit (esp.#NoDealBrexit) not only outweigh any benefits? but TOWER above them! NO real tangible meaningful Benefit has ever been surfaced? If it's all about getting back into bed with USA? Count me out! 26/ends.

Huge thanks to ALL who've supported my 26part thread on the #OpportunityCost of #Brexit!

Spoiler alert! I'm not devoting unpaid time to this matter for myself, or anyone else, other than those most likely to be the very hardest hit, if we do #NoDealBrexit (as now seems likely).

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Appendix 1: UK's 20 year GDP trendline, including the financial crash years - which #NoDealBrexit would eclipse, on the downside.

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Appendix 2: UK Government's own assessment of Brexit's GDP regional impact.

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Appendix 3: With £600 bn pa of EU/UK bi-lateral trade at stake, it's not just Brits that would lose out if UK does #NoDealBrexit. So selfish!

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Appendix 4: Regional project funding, coming back to the UK out of our gross EU contributions, has been much more significant than HMG has EVER conceded.

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Appendix 5: The fiscal impact of #NoDealBrexit is completely unaffordable! This simply can not be countenanced! @10DowningStreet must be told!

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Appendix 6: Debt v GDP built by @Conservatives, when wrestling with financial crash fall-out, has stymied UK to an extent that few understand and less acknowledge.

@uk_domain_names @BBCNews @sajidjavid @10DowningStreet @Conservatives Appendix 7: The rapid pace of net debt build-up, post a major shock like the last financial crash, should give pause to politicians who believe we can sustain another one, so soon!