@AsteadWesley offers excellent insight into dynamics of Iowa, Black voters & Obama in this @nytimes piece. There is indeed enormous misunderstanding (and, in the case of white candidates seeking to emulate O, wishful thinking). Two, maybe contradictory observations 1/
One, it is absolutely true that Black voters were thrilled about and ready for Obama long before Iowa cast ballots. My college classmate @TreyEllis wrote this awesome August 2007 piece saying every Black Amer was going to back Obama huffpost.com/entry/no-matte… 2/
But, two, at same time, Black folk are practical people, with a very sober and evidence-based understanding of the electoral behavior of white voters (majority of white voters backed R nominee every election since LBJ signed '65 Voting Rights Act) 3/
As @DaveChappelle said after Trump won, "I stopped being surprised by white people a long time ago," 4/
So the Iowa '08 results ABSOLUTELY mattered to Black people. Not that it changed our perception of Obama, but it changed our view of white voters. Maybe, this time, they would actually back a Black man, we thought 4/
Nobody wants to waste their vote, and that was the calculation Black voters were making. Even though we loved Obama, would it be a wasted vote if whites wouldn't back him? Iowa showed us that whites would in fact vote Black 5/
And that is when the damn burst with the Black vote for Obama, lifting him to his insurmountable delegate lead by mid-March and then on to becoming the first Black person in that White House 6/
The notion that non-Black candidates could replicate that dynamic, however, is unempirical, if not nonsensical, especially against the VP to the first Black pres. @CoryBooker & @KamalaHarris could have plausibly changed Black minds in SC by winning Iowa 7/
But for other candidates to pin their hopes of garnering Black support on strong showings with white voters in Iowa is so off-base as to be almost disqualifying 8/
And I guess that is @AsteadWesley's, accurate, point. If you don't already have support in Black community, doing well in Iowa won't save you. Misinterpreting Iowa's role in informing Black voters about white behavior can lead to chasing a mirage END
