What if this coronavirus is the pandemic that public health people have been warning about for years?
It would accelerate many pre-existing trends.
- border closures
- nationalism
- social isolation
- preppers
- remote work
- face masks
- distrust in governments
1) Lancet: thelancet.com/coronavirus
2) NEJM: nejm.org/coronavirus
3) JHU: gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
My credentials, if relevant: PhD with papers in microbial and clinical genomics.
1) Exponential growth of cases inside and outside China
2) Non-China graph seems much lower, but is "only" about 2-3 weeks behind at same rate
3) Data updates ~every night, so apparent slowdown in cases may not be real
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
However, some folks in the US media are acting just like the Chinese state media they claim to deplore -- and minimizing the issue.
Don't panic, do take decisive action.
chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dra…
When SV & China both agree on something, it often happens. Face masks are on the rise due to infection & pollution. Privacy is a third driver.
Every American man used to wear a hat. Perhaps everyone wears a face mask soon.
Today, only a subset of jobs are feasible with remote work. But if there's a highly contagious and possibly deadly disease out there, that changes everything.
With robotics & telepresence, a much larger percentage of jobs could become teleoperated.
If another country has an outbreak as bad as China's, some trends may be arrested & reversed, at least in the short run. Tinder would fall. Perhaps Uber & Airbnb too. Digital nomadism as well.
Anything related to travel and meeting strangers.
If it became pandemic, this virus would accelerate nationalism (border controls, caution vs strangers) and technology (remote work, VR, decentralized diagnostics). And accelerate the fall of the pre-2016 consensus.
See here:
tweetstorm.io/user/balajis/7…
The left should put aside the pitchforks for big pharma for a second
And the right should get comfortable with large appropriations bills for vaccines (the govt!)
We can't ask folks to bankrupt themselves for an uncertain outcome. We should at least defray their costs. And celebrate the inventors, like Jonas Salk.
It's like conscription. The public may well need vaccine development, but need to at least pay for it
I'm not sure whether this would ever catch on. But in the event there is a permanent social resetting, you could imagine clothes like this becoming more standard with built-in N95 masks or the equivalent.
gearnova.com/vollebak-relax…
There are many shades of gray between "everything works" and "Mad Max".
The biggest societal adaptation would be reducing non-obligate contact with strangers.
BLS has a list of the most common US jobs. What percent can be done remote? Or via kiosk, robot, teleoperation?
thestacker.com/stories/3487/m…