Thread by @btc_charlie

January Trading Results – A thread. TLDR:

- 15 trades closed in the period, 7 still open.
- Win/Loss of 47% for a total account gain of 35%
- This does not include long term holds (e.g. $RVN, $THETA, $RSR)
- This does not include my scalping account, which I degen 10x $BTC

👇

I started disciplined trading in December. I have usually bought quality projects (and some scams) and gone for x’s. I’m now journaling all of my trades and trying to hone this craft. I have already learned a LOT from simply reviewing my trades:

If I am highly confident in a trade, I have a 25% win rate. Medium confidence 55%. Lesson – don’t correlate position size with confidence. Do it on quality of setup (new matrix established).

Only one of the trades I prepared beforehand was not “one good trade”. This was because my SL was poor and I got hunted, which I noted in the trade logic. Lesson – Have a plan. Stick to it.

I have lost 2 trades with the reason “Gut”. Stupid I know, and even putting it in my log after doing it I felt stupid (although I did it again!). These two trades were a -28% drawdown. Lesson – I am nowhere near the ‘intuitive’ stage as Mark Douglas puts it! No plan, no play.

After I lost those two trades, I cashed out two positions early because I didn’t want another loss. Three lessons – accept the risk at point of entering the trade, lower position size to rebuild confidence and thirdly only scale some out to ‘pay for the trade’ if necessary.

It isn’t all bad. I made one great trade on $BSV where I was short and got stopped out. I flipped long based on my HTF system and the PA. This was a good read of the market that sat in the system and I made a 35% account gain from it. On all but two trades I had 2% account risk.

The divergence strategy I have been using only has a 20% win rate and has cost me 3% of the account. That said, a sample of 5 isn’t enough to determine whether or not this is a reasonable edge – so I’ll stick with it.

My best trades are HTF market structure trades supported with PA. I have 100% win rate on these (only 4), but after a few months it will be interesting to see if this is still my highest W/L (hoping for 45%+!).

The most interesting bit for me is this: trades I made from my office were 56% win rate and +44% account gain. Trades I made from my mobile were 33% win rate and -9% account loss. Lesson: deleted mobile trading apps.

If you’ve read this far, thanks for indulging me. If you have any comments I’d be glad to hear them. Shoutouts to a few who have helped me MASSIVELY over the last month:
@ColdBloodShill
@codofliess
@Crypto_C00kie
@KoroushAK
@TraderEX1LE

Thank you all. 🍻