This thread on the Selzer/DMR/CNN poll is worth reading but one further meta-thought:
This is the rare instance (usually I think this theory is overrated/under-evidenced) where a poll itself could have an impact on the race by influencing media and voter behavior.
This is the rare instance (usually I think this theory is overrated/under-evidenced) where a poll itself could have an impact on the race by influencing media and voter behavior.
For voters—with several candidates sitting near the 15% threshold and/or needing a good Iowa night to be viable going forward—there's the chance of tactical voting if someone seem to have momentum. If it's a good poll for Amy K. for instance, she could gain at Pete B.'s expense.
For the media, it will heavily affect expectations. And the funny thing is that if you're a frontrunner (Bernie, Biden) you would rather expectations be *lower*. You tend to get a bigger bounce that way if you win, and a smaller "anti-bounce" if you *don't* win.
In that sense, I think it's a more important poll for Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar than for Biden and Bernie. Hell, if I were Bernie, and I was *actually* up 3 points or something, I'm not sure I'd hate being tied or down 1 in this poll to temper expectations a bit.
But for Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, who are competing for overlapping groups of college-educated voters, I'm really hoping that I end up at the high end of the poll's margin of error, triggering a "surge" or "comeback" narrative that caucusgoers will be thinking about.
