Thread by @TSBigMoney

Last model before the Iowa Caucus tonight. Bernie's closed the gap with Biden to just 4.2% (~Margin of Error on most polls)

I also have a prelim Caucus first vote estimate of:
Bernie 27.1, Biden 19.1, Pete 16.5, Warren 14.7, Klob 9, Yang 3.6
This will get more updates today

Bernie continues to expand basically all his coalition in equal proportions, maintaining a cohort that's the most diverse in the field at 51.3% white support. Biden is next with 52.5%, followed by Bloomberg with 64.1% white, Warren with 66.15%, and Pete with 82.1%

Bernie continues to consolidate the youth vote, with a coalition that's 82.1% under 50 (56% under 35!). Warren is next youngest with 64.3% under 50, followed by Pete with 49%, Biden with 47.5%, and Bloomberg with 43.8%

Some things jump out when comparing demos of the national numbers to Iowa's averages:

Among whites nationally you have
Biden 24.7, Sanders 20.9, Warren 14.8, Bloomberg 11.3, Pete 8.7

In Iowa?
Bernie 27, Biden 19.7, Warren 14.8, Pete 14.5, Klob 11.4

So, Pete gets the local boy boost, Klob seems, due to ballot restrictions, to be supplanting the prototypical national Bloomberg voter (i.e. white and older than dirt). Bernie, meanwhile, seems to benefit from exposure to the area, Biden seems to fade, and Warren sits tight

Warren's 1:1 crossover with Iowa seems consistent going back in the polls. The stark divide in M/F support tracks also. Her coalition always had higher female support, at her peak in 10/28 her coalition was 60.5% women, about 4% higher than the party as a whole. Now it's 66.2%

You can see how this divergence accelerated more recently. Just prior to the Iowa debate, 01/14, Warren's support was 62.5% women. Since then she gained about 1% total support entirely from women, and lost about 1% from men, causing the gender rift to widen futher

Bernie Sanders, however, the target of Warren and CNN's attacks that night, actually became more gender balanced, going from 51% women to 52.5%, after gaining roughtly 2% total support from men and 2.5% total support from women in the same timeframe