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Iowa caucus winning chances:

Sanders: 2 in 5 (41%)
Biden: 1 in 3 (32%)
Buttigieg: 1 in 7 (14%)
Warren: 1 in 10 (10%)
Klobuchar: 1 in 40 (2%)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Sanders has emerged with a slightly clearer lead over Biden with the final few polls (although technically we're still holding the model open until 3pm). Still think people are underestimating the uncertainty a bit and neither a Buttigieg or Warren win would be at all shocking.
Note that we're forecasting the popular vote after realignment and not *state delegate equivalents*. State delegate equivalents may help the moderates more than Sanders and Warren. Here's more about what that all means: fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
All right, so this article gives you a preview of how our model is going to react to Iowa results... once we have enough Iowa results to include them. (It's still off/frozen until then.) fivethirtyeight.com/features/butti…
Just trying to be as honest/transparent as possible: the model will try to guess at the Iowa bounces for each candidate, but these guesses aren't worth much because Iowa was really weird and there are multiple ways to define who won (assuming current results hold).
So while there are some things we *do* know—clearly Iowa was not *good* news for Joe Biden—I'd mostly encourage y'all to take it with a grain of salt for the next few days until we get some post-Iowa polling.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also, I'm not sure why being at 9% nationally (which is where he is in the averages) is supposed to be so impressive when you need 15% to get delegates.
If you held Super Tuesday today, Bloomberg probably would get over 15% in some states/districts, and accumulate a few dozen delegates. Maybe more than that... 100 or 150 out of the ~1350 delegate available.
That probably does materially increase the chance of a contested convention. But it's not an obvious path to a *Bloomberg* nomination.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If you carefully read both the Buttigieg and Sanders memos, I don't think either campaign is particularly confident that it's going to win Iowa, at least not across all 3 metrics. There is a lot of ambiguity ("at representative precincts") and hedging ("winning the SDE count").
The Buttigieg campaign does seem fairly confident that it's going to win state delegate equivalents (SDEs). That's the most confident claim in either memo. And it's credible since the Bernie numbers also show him doing fairly well in SDE's.
Buttigieg has now released a more detailed statement and is claiming to have won 28% of SDE's based on ~75% of the vote. That compares to Sanders's statement claiming 28.6% of SDE's based on ~40% of the vote.
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Jake Tapper
@jaketapper
Likely NH Dem primary voters

Sanders 25%
Biden 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 6%
Gabbard 5%
Yang 5%

Margin of error: +/-4.3% pts
Also important in NH, a battleground state: “Statewide, the poll finds Trump’s approval rating at 50%, up from 44% in an October survey. That includes a boost among Republicans and among independents...”
But fewer NH “residents say they will definitely or probably vote to re-elect the president (46%) than say they will definitely or probably vote against him (49%). Those firmly committed against the president (43%) outpace those solidly behind him (37%).”
Read 3 tweets
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Anne Baber Wallis
@abwallis
THREAD @Dr_ColetteDavis: What happens at the #Iowa #caucus?The caucus is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, yet I wld argue that it asserts the very best of democracy. It may not work in other places, but in #Iowa, it is a Beautiful Thing. #IowaCaucus
Allow me to explain. On a cold Jan night, Iowans leave their homes & go to the high school, community center, small school house, or even a home. When I lived in Iowa City (for 12 years and three election cycles), we caucased (yes, that’s a verb) at the nearby high school.
When I lived in Iowa City (for 12 years and three election cycles), we caucased (yes, that’s a verb) at the nearby high school. Starting the prior summer during the Iowa State Fair, candidates begin to descend on Iowa.
Read 26 tweets
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☇RiotWomenn☇
@riotwomennn
Biden is the only 2020 Democratic candidate beating Trump in polls of Florida and Virginia — two swing states with 42 electoral votes that could prove pivotal. axios.com/biden-trump-fl…
Bernie Sanders is walking poison for Democrats. That's why Republicans support him. He is Trump's only hope

Biden's lead over Trump beats Sanders' lead over Trump in all four of these states.

Remember, no Bernie national attack ads at this point

VP Joe Biden Leads by 6 in New Iowa Poll

Source: Neighborhood
Research and Media (B rated poll by 538)

Iowa, Jan 14-17, 2020, 300 LV

Biden - 23%
Buttigieg - 17%
Warren - 15%
Klobuchar - 11%
Sanders - 10%
Yang - 2%
Steyer - 2%

Read 3 tweets
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Zach Montellaro
@ZachMontellaro
New CBS News/YouGov polls (count for the Jan debate)

Iowa
Sanders 23%
Biden 23%
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 16%
Klobuchar 7%
Everyone else at or below 3 percent

N.H.
Sanders 27%
Biden 25%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 13%
Klobuchar 7%
Everyone else at or below 3 percent cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sa…
The debate ramifications: In the first early state polls since mid-November, we see a very, very tight race in both Iowa and New Hampshire. But nobody who needed a poll for the January debate — Yang, Booker or Steyer — got one docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Also @CBSNewsPoll hasn't posted the full crosstabs yet, but I assure you the other candidates (Booker, Steyer, Yang, etc) were included. So right now, Steyer needs 2 more polls at or above 5 percent before Friday, Yang needs 3 more and Booker needs all 4 docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 5 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
Read 5 tweets

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