All right, so this article gives you a preview of how our model is going to react to Iowa results... once we have enough Iowa results to include them. (It's still off/frozen until then.) fivethirtyeight.com/features/butti…
Just trying to be as honest/transparent as possible: the model will try to guess at the Iowa bounces for each candidate, but these guesses aren't worth much because Iowa was really weird and there are multiple ways to define who won (assuming current results hold).
So while there are some things we *do* know—clearly Iowa was not *good* news for Joe Biden—I'd mostly encourage y'all to take it with a grain of salt for the next few days until we get some post-Iowa polling.
