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1/ Time for a Google conspiracy theory, I call it GATE - GAM At The Edge. Buried within all of their new proposals about digital advertising after cookies, is a particularly interesting one named TURTLEDOVE. Believe it or not, that actually is an acronym!
2/ Two Uncorrelated Requests, Then Locally-Executed Decision On Victory. The first part ("Two Uncorrelated Requests") is super-interesting nerd-stuff that is very privacy-first, but the second part is where you should put on your tinfoil hat.
3/ "Locally-Executed Decision On Victory" is a reference to the ad auction actually occurring in the browser. Unlike in current ad systems where the final auction occurs in the ad server (the cloud), if this proposal became reality, the final auction would occur in the browser.
4/ But auctions DO occur at the edge today, in wrappers like Prebid, but that's certainly not the way Google does business. But within this new proposal, it would seem that Google may be moving into this space.
5/ If Google made their own "wrapper" (GATE - GAM at the Edge) that took OB functionality, had an AdX "adapter" and pulled direct deals trafficking info from a cloud-based server, it could have a Prebid-killer on its hands.
6/ That wrapper would have AdX demand (a necessity for any publisher) and combine it with a server-side connection to major exchanges (OB), and provide much more transparency to publishers (and the ecosystem at-large) about how the auction actually happens.
7/ Plus since much of the code would be client-side, it would have yield benefits for publishers over the existing fully server-side OB. I believe Google may want to do this for several reasons...
8/ By making the auction transparent they remove lots of regulatory issues - making it harder to complain they are stacking the deck in their favor. By moving to this model, they can take a stab at Prebid, possibly the only non-Google ad technology at scale on the sell-side
9/ Also, as noted by @SarahSluis, Google just removed TAC from the "network members" part of their financial reporting . Imagine if they were to cut their rev share on AdX to 5 or 10%.
10/ Now they've got an edge-based ad server (still with something in the cloud for reporting/trafficking purposes), every demand source plugged in, and lower fees - why would a publisher run anything but their stack at this point?
11/ But why would they lower their fees? Google's cash cow is Search, they need to protect that at all costs. If the open web withers (because third-party cookies die) it makes Search less relevant to users, which is bad for Google.
12/ By taking a revenue hit on the least important part of their business, they can protect their cash cow, reduce regulatory issues, (arguably) increase competition, and via GATE, can get rid of their biggest "threat" (Prebid).
13/ And since TAC is now out of their financial reporting, they have less to worry about their shareholders knowing when that number spikes up. Search is protected, YouTube is their growth opportunity, and they make their "worst" business a bit worse than it is today.
14/ And if they still get broken up by regulators and the ex-Doubleclick division is separated out, that division now doesn't stand a chance of competing with the mothership...
I'd also like to say that I don't take a position on whether any of this is good or bad. I broadly think Google supports the open web and wants publishers to make money so think this can be good. But ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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