Thread: The @nytimes giving “both sides” credence to the NYPD’s fearmmongering lie of “spikes in crime” caused by bail reform is irresponsible.
Don’t take it from me. Bipartisan @verainstitute out today: “His selective use of shortrun statistics doesn’t support this statement.”
Don’t take it from me. Bipartisan @verainstitute out today: “His selective use of shortrun statistics doesn’t support this statement.”
First: “While specific crimes referenced were higher at beginning of 2020 than same 3-weeks in 2019: Murders, rapes, felony assaults all fell. Grand larcenies barely rose. Would be just as wrong to proclaim we’re “safer” based on those numbers, as “less safe” based on NYPD’s.”
Second: “Statistics are volatile when measured in short run. Looking at a snapshot when the law has only been in effect for 3 weeks does little, if anything, to show longterm impact of bail reform. As any Mets fan who gets their hopes up after a few good weeks in April knows.”
🚨Key: “Look at crime trends over last year in NYC. Number of robberies, burglaries & car thefts—the crimes cited by Shea—all increased in middle 2019, long before bail reform started. Numbers remained relatively stable since then, w/ no new increase as bail reform took effect.”
Without sensationalized backdrop of bail reform: “Fluctuations @NYPDShea cite are by no means unprecedented (or even uncommon).”
Example 1: First 3 weeks of January, there was a 43% increase in murders between 2018 and 2019—& the following year, the trend reversed.”
Crickets.
Example 1: First 3 weeks of January, there was a 43% increase in murders between 2018 and 2019—& the following year, the trend reversed.”
Crickets.
Example 2: During first 3 weeks of 2015, 819 felony assaults. Following year, number jumped 25%. Grand larceny reports increased by 17% between 1st 3 weeks of 2012 & 2013.
Crickets. No sensationalism trying to tie justice policy to 3 weeks worth of data. Of course.
Crickets. No sensationalism trying to tie justice policy to 3 weeks worth of data. Of course.
Selective use of data is, quite simply, cynical politics: “None of these (see ☝️) seemingly dramatic shifts reflected NYC tipping into a period of increased violence &, without the backdrop of bail reform, *they did not receive the same kind of attention that we are seeing now.*”
Strong from @verainstitute: “Opponents have been wrongly warning bail reform endangers public safety. But criminologists & statisticians know it’s far too early to reach any conclusion. Fearmongering should have no role in driving policy.” Report: vera.org/downloads/publ…
Justice Not Fear is updating their Daily Debunk to provide critical nuance to all the desperate lies, including a post today on this NYT article, @NYPDShea’s lies, & @verainstitute’s excellent report. Visit: JusticeNotFear.org/#Debunk
