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One advantage of the SSP framework is the ability to compare models across consistent socioeconomic assumptions.

This figure shows the carbon price for SSP2 across different models (boxes), with different 2100 forcing levels.

1/
This figure shows how carbon prices vary in 1.5°C scenarios across models (boxes) & SSP (colours).

Missing data means either the model could not solve, or the model did not try the SSP-RCP combination.

2/
This figure zooms in to show how carbon prices vary in 2°C scenarios across SSP (boxes), model (lines), and region (colours).

Carbon prices vary little by design, as even in the worst case there is convergence to a uniform global carbon price in 2040.

3/
You can play with all the data, downloadable from here
tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti…

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD

New @IEA estimates show that global energy-related CO₂ emissions flattened in 2019:
* Emissions in advanced economies fell by -3.2% (-400Mt)
* Emissions outside advanced economies grew ~1.9% (400 Mt)

1/
iea.org/articles/globa…
The IEA found a 1.2% decline in CO₂ emissions from the power sector (orange), with a slight drop in power generation (blue)

The biggest falls took place in advanced economies from expanding renewables (mainly wind & solar PV), coal to gas, & higher nuclear power output.

2/
Most advanced economies had declining emissions, while emissions grew in the rest of the world (no country detail given).

Key point: Milder weather in many large economies compared with 2018 had an important effect on the trends, reducing emissions by around 150 Mt.

3/
Read 8 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD

What were the key takeaways from @hausfath & my comment last week?

First, move to more probabilistic scenarios. Initially, this can be qualitative (to the right of figure), & this would be very helpful to avoid confusion by scenario users.

1/
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Over time, the probabilistic scenarios could become more quantitative. This would help in risk assessment.

This will require research, new methods, etc. What do different user group want from scenarios? How to develop probabilistic scenarios? Etc

2/
Second, put more focus on mid-range scenarios.

Previously, there has been a lot of focus on a high end scenario (RCP8.5), but choices were a little limited.

Modellers now have a range of scenario choices. There is no need to focus on an increasingly unlikely worst case.

3/
Read 10 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
"A 3C world will have catastrophic impacts for some, the loss of islands, corals, Arctic sea ice, some land glaciers, & not to mention changes in extreme weather. This is a world we want to avoid."

mashable.com/article/climat…

Based on nature.com/articles/d4158…

1/
"The fact we are heading for 3C, despite virtually no climate policies, should give us some hope that we might be able to quickly move to a pathway towards 1.5 or 2C"

"I think of the 3C story as a more optimistic one, that our chances of under 2C are better than thought"

2/
Overstating the likelihood of extreme climate impacts can make mitigation seem harder than it actually is. This could lead to defeatism, because the problem is perceived as being out of control and unsolvable.
nature.com/articles/d4158…

3/
Read 6 tweets

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Tom Krebs
@tom_krebs_
The German government unveiled a major policy package to combat #climate change. The subsequent discussion in the German media shows the huge political and economic cost of a simple-minded focus on #carbon pricing – it’s the 1980s all over again! A Thread @BMF_Bund @JWMason1
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Celebration Church, Abuja.
@CCI_Abuja
ABILITY: POSSIBILITIES BY THE SPIRIT

What does the statement 'the Holy spirit is our comforter' imply?
It means that He is the guiding presence of God in the face of the trials in our lives.
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
The high-end future emissions scenario – RCP8.5 – was never intended to be the most likely “business as usual” outcome. We take a deep dive into the creation of RCP8.5 and its subsequent (mis)use over at @CarbonBrief: carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-… 1/23(!)
Energy system modelers have created a range of scenarios to examine what might happen in a world where no additional climate policies are adopted. These range from a RCP6.0-type scenario (~3C warming by 2100) to RCP8.5 (~5C). RCP8.5 is the worst case available, not BAU: 2/x
Lets take a brief look at the history of the development of the RCPs. After the IPCC AR4 came out in 2007, there was a widespread desire to update the old SRES scenarios – developed in the late 1990s – to better reflect current technological and socioeconomic conditions. 3/x
Read 25 tweets
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Tommy Hodgins
@innovati
This year for #merryCSSmas I'll be covering some of the most requested styling features and how they can be used with CSS. This will be a month-long series showing ways that simple, valid CSS, and simple JavaScript functions can work together to style anything you can imagine!
Dec 1: Parent Selector 🎄🎁 Though CSS doesn't have a :parent selector, you can create your own with a small JavaScript function and use a selector like [--parent] in your CSS stylesheets today!

demo: codepen.io/tomhodgins/pen…
code: npmjs.com/package/jsincs…

#css #javascript Supporting your own parent selector in CSS with [--parent]
Dec 2: The :has() Selector ⭐️✨ Even though this selector has been specced in CSS for years, no browsers support it yet. Thankfully it's easy for us to support with a selector like [--has] in our CSS

demo: codepen.io/tomhodgins/pen…
code: github.com/tomhodgins/jsi…

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