THREAD
What were the key takeaways from @hausfath & my comment last week?
First, move to more probabilistic scenarios. Initially, this can be qualitative (to the right of figure), & this would be very helpful to avoid confusion by scenario users.
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nature.com/articles/d4158…
What were the key takeaways from @hausfath & my comment last week?
First, move to more probabilistic scenarios. Initially, this can be qualitative (to the right of figure), & this would be very helpful to avoid confusion by scenario users.
1/
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Over time, the probabilistic scenarios could become more quantitative. This would help in risk assessment.
This will require research, new methods, etc. What do different user group want from scenarios? How to develop probabilistic scenarios? Etc
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This will require research, new methods, etc. What do different user group want from scenarios? How to develop probabilistic scenarios? Etc
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Second, put more focus on mid-range scenarios.
Previously, there has been a lot of focus on a high end scenario (RCP8.5), but choices were a little limited.
Modellers now have a range of scenario choices. There is no need to focus on an increasingly unlikely worst case.
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Previously, there has been a lot of focus on a high end scenario (RCP8.5), but choices were a little limited.
Modellers now have a range of scenario choices. There is no need to focus on an increasingly unlikely worst case.
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Why?
First, it is useful to better outline the climate impacts we need to adapt to (including exploring higher risks).
Second, there is a gap in the scenarios (& type of scenarios) in the direction we are heading, & these are the real reference for future mitigation action.
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First, it is useful to better outline the climate impacts we need to adapt to (including exploring higher risks).
Second, there is a gap in the scenarios (& type of scenarios) in the direction we are heading, & these are the real reference for future mitigation action.
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Some of us already work on some of these questions.
My colleagues, for example, work closely with financial users on want they want (& need) to deal with climate risks.
cicero.oslo.no/en/climate-fin…
We are building capacity & activity in these areas, but lack resources 💰.
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My colleagues, for example, work closely with financial users on want they want (& need) to deal with climate risks.
cicero.oslo.no/en/climate-fin…
We are building capacity & activity in these areas, but lack resources 💰.
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There are also critiques of our comment.
One is that we do not consider feedbacks (also the link between emissions & concentration).
We discuss this, & yes, this is important & needs more research. RCP8.5 is still an outlier.
Zeke explains here
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One is that we do not consider feedbacks (also the link between emissions & concentration).
We discuss this, & yes, this is important & needs more research. RCP8.5 is still an outlier.
Zeke explains here
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There is a discussion on the realism of RCP8.5 emission pathways, particularly coal. There is quite some literature on this
(& other arguments)
But, back to the substance.
Either way, RCP8.5 emissions will remain an outlier. Our arguments remain.
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(& other arguments)
But, back to the substance.
Either way, RCP8.5 emissions will remain an outlier. Our arguments remain.
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There is an argument along the lines that papers like ours lead to less climate action. This would require, on a net basis over time, that our suggestions would change peoples minds to want less climate action.
That is a long bow if you ask me...
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That is a long bow if you ask me...
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Our purpose with the comment is quite the opposite.
We would like to see scenarios become more useful, more helpful to inform climate policy, more useful to business & investors that need to make decisions, & more useful in helping public understanding.
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We would like to see scenarios become more useful, more helpful to inform climate policy, more useful to business & investors that need to make decisions, & more useful in helping public understanding.
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There is a view that amongst some "the problem is solved if we don't call RCP8.5 business as usual". Is this a cheap shot?
Scroll up & read the first few tweets in the thread.
Keep the comments coming, but preferably on our takeaways at the start of the thread...
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Scroll up & read the first few tweets in the thread.
Keep the comments coming, but preferably on our takeaways at the start of the thread...
10/10
