THREAD
New @IEA estimates show that global energy-related CO₂ emissions flattened in 2019:
* Emissions in advanced economies fell by -3.2% (-400Mt)
* Emissions outside advanced economies grew ~1.9% (400 Mt)
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iea.org/articles/globa…
New @IEA estimates show that global energy-related CO₂ emissions flattened in 2019:
* Emissions in advanced economies fell by -3.2% (-400Mt)
* Emissions outside advanced economies grew ~1.9% (400 Mt)
1/
iea.org/articles/globa…
The IEA found a 1.2% decline in CO₂ emissions from the power sector (orange), with a slight drop in power generation (blue)
The biggest falls took place in advanced economies from expanding renewables (mainly wind & solar PV), coal to gas, & higher nuclear power output.
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The biggest falls took place in advanced economies from expanding renewables (mainly wind & solar PV), coal to gas, & higher nuclear power output.
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Most advanced economies had declining emissions, while emissions grew in the rest of the world (no country detail given).
Key point: Milder weather in many large economies compared with 2018 had an important effect on the trends, reducing emissions by around 150 Mt.
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Key point: Milder weather in many large economies compared with 2018 had an important effect on the trends, reducing emissions by around 150 Mt.
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The @gcarbonproject estimated a +0.6% increase in 2019, with a range -0.2% to +1.5% (data up to Q3).
If cement is excluded to be consistent with the IEA data, we get a +0.5% increase.
Our estimate is higher than the IEA, but the IEA estimate is within our uncertainty band.
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If cement is excluded to be consistent with the IEA data, we get a +0.5% increase.
Our estimate is higher than the IEA, but the IEA estimate is within our uncertainty band.
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CO₂ emissions from coal use declined by -1.3% (200Mt) according to the IEA, while the @gcarbonproject had a -0.9% decline.
The IEA has less growth in oil & gas. The total change in oil & gas was 200Mt (IEA), compared to 300Mt (GCP).
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The IEA has less growth in oil & gas. The total change in oil & gas was 200Mt (IEA), compared to 300Mt (GCP).
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At the country level, excluding cement
* US: -2.9% (IEA), -1.7% (GCP)
* EU: -5% (IEA), -1.7% (GCP)
The main difference between IEA & GCP (@gcarbonproject) is likely that the IEA has greater declines in the advanced economies (EU in particular).
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* US: -2.9% (IEA), -1.7% (GCP)
* EU: -5% (IEA), -1.7% (GCP)
The main difference between IEA & GCP (@gcarbonproject) is likely that the IEA has greater declines in the advanced economies (EU in particular).
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The IEA release only has limited data for a few key countries. We will have to wait for later in the year when more detailed data comes to do a more thorough comparison on what happened in 2019 & why estimates differ!
Read the @IEA report for details iea.org/articles/globa…
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Read the @IEA report for details iea.org/articles/globa…
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@IEA An addition on the US.
The US EIA STEO estimates that US emissions went down 2.1% in 2019, compared to the IEA's 2.9% estimates.
It will be interesting to see who is correct!
eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
The US EIA STEO estimates that US emissions went down 2.1% in 2019, compared to the IEA's 2.9% estimates.
It will be interesting to see who is correct!
eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
