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#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change vs last week)

Biden: 24 (-2)
Sanders: 19 (-5)
Warren: 18 (-2)
Buttigieg: 9 (2)
Bloomberg: 9 (4)
Klobuchar: 6 (1)
Yang: 3 (-1)
Gabbard: 3 (0)
Steyer: 2 (1)
Bennet: 1 (1)
Which candidates are Democrats considering voting for? (These numbers are from the past month of polls)

Biden: 48%
Warren: 47%
Sanders: 45%
Buttigieg: 28%
Bloomberg: 22%
Klobuchar: 20%
Yang: 16%
Steyer: 12%
Gabbard: 6%
Bennet: 4%
Patrick: 3%
Who would Democrats be disappointed in as the nominee?
(These numbers are from the past month of polls)

Gabbard: 43%
Bloomberg: 29%
Patrick: 23%
Biden: 23%
Steyer: 22%
Sanders: 22%
Bennet: 21%
Buttigieg: 19%
Klobuchar: 17%
Yang: 17%
Warren: 16%
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
The Economist’s polling with YouGov finds that on the eve of the Iowa Caucus, Sanders is only winning 41% of the voters who cast ballots for him in the 2016 primary nationally
A big weakness for Sanders is that he’s only polling at 9% among 2016 Clinton primary voters, who make up about half of Democrats
Another way of saying this is that Sander’s base is made up of roughly 70% of people who voted for him last time and 30% who voted for someone else.

Biden’s voters are even more lopsided, about 85% Clinton voters/15% someone else.

Warren’s are the most balanced.
Read 5 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW from me: What would happen if the Democrats instituted a national primary using ranked-choice voting? I got the data from @YouGovUS and crunched the numbers:

economist.com/graphic-detail…
@YouGovUS We had YouGov ask over 2,000 Democratic voters to rank all the 2020 candidates over the past month. We used those responses to simulate ranked-choice voting in the primary.

How does RCV work, you ask? Just a reminder....
@YouGovUS 0. Count up all the ballots
1. Did someone win a majority of the vote? If yes, they win. If not....
2. Anyone who listed the last-place candidate gets their votes redistributed to their next-ranked option.
3. Re-tally the votes and repeat 1-2 until someone gets a majority.
Read 10 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW I wrote about "electability" and the 2020 Democratic primary for the paper this week. We combined political science and polling data and found that a moderate Dem with strength among working-class whites has the best chance against Trump.

<THREAD>

economist.com/united-states/…
The 2020 election is likely to be close. Trump's approval rating & GDP growth suggest that he'll win about 49% of the two-party vote, per our modeling. He's clearly competitive, especially when Democrats need to win the popular vote by about ~2.5pts to win the electoral college.
So the "electability" of the candidates is a particular concern for Democrats.

So what do we know about who is more likely to win general elections?
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Demain c'est le début des primaires démocrates pour désigner le candidat qui affrontera #Trump en novembre. Mais au fait, lequel de ces candidats est le plus à même de battre le Président sortant ? #thread
🇺🇸🗳️ Un premier point dans une vaste étude du #VoterStudyGroup de @democracyfund : 2016 était la première élection qui mettait aux prises deux candidats rejetés par les Américains. Ce sera la même chose en 2020, ni #Trump ni les prétendants démocrates ne passant la barre des 50%.
@DemocracyFund 🇺🇸🗳️ Dans les sondages nationaux, #Biden est régulièrement le candidat démocrate qui obtient les meilleurs résultats face à #Trump. Idem dans les principaux #swingstates, et pas seulement dans ceux de la #rustbelt où l'aspect "local" de #Biden l'aide.
Read 22 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
#KamalaHarris's support is almost evenly split between women and men. The same is true of her support from voters with and without college degrees. Her support from black voters is equal to Biden's and support from Latinx is higher.
via @MorningConsult
#LizWarren's main support is from women at 60%. Warren's support from voters over and under 45 is almost evenly split, unlike any other top four candidate. And she has nearly equal support among college and no college voters.

via @MorningConsult
The evenness of @KamalaHarris's polling between women and men and voters of color and white voters versus the other top four candidates is significant and bolsters her electability argument.

via @MorningConsult
Read 4 tweets
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Topless Topics
@ToplessTopics
#warren/#buttigieg 2020. Tell me why I'm wrong.
I was really hoping to elect a person of color, and I still have some interest in Harris. But she's getting too much heat for her prosecutor background. Besides Warren has the most policies that align with my view of America, AND she knows how to make those goals achievable!
And Buttigieg... I'm still learning about his ability to govern, but I'm continually impressed by how worldly and hella SMART he is. and he's obviously had some inside experience of oppression as a gay man from middle America.
Read 12 tweets

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