My Authors
Read all threads
I can understand the frustration but there are two important reasons why Warren does not factor prominently at this point:
1) Being the candidate of well-educated liberals is basically a dominated strategy in Dem primaries. Where's she going to win? Look at the Iowa county map. She took a strong third, and she won, just barely, in a single county. In NH, she could end up winning one town, Hanover
To create momentum in Dem primaries, you usually have to win states, starting with places. And her coalition is just not suited to it.
2) The single two candidates with the most obvious momentum--Sanders and Buttigieg--are the two that most obviously pry away at the two flanks of her coalition, the ideologically consistent progressive vote and the well-educated/meritocratic suburban vote
And if you take these two things together, it is hard to see where she can go from here: if you take where we are now, and set it in motion, she fades out. Now, something could happen to change this, but she needs a fundamental shift in the dynamics currently at play
Klobuchar shows of strength do factor prominently at this point, because it can prevent the consolidation of the moderate-wing.
Warren could have had the same effect on the left, but Sanders is positioned well enough to make it less of a question
It doesn't stop it. But for the reason you've noted, and to reframe what I said above, Sanders is strong enough to make the split on the left a less important question. Similarly, consolidation in the center would make Warren a bigger question
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Nate Cohn

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!