Thread by @TheValuesVoter

Something for #IowaCaucus voters to consider:

Trump won in 2016 b/c he won 6 states Obama/Biden had won twice:
- Florida (29 electoral votes)
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Ohio (18)
- Michigan (16)
- Wisconsin (11)
- Iowa (6)

So, how do the Dem candidates poll against Trump here?

If you look at the General Election polls on FiveThirtyEight.com, you can look at the polls that compare various Democratic candidates against Trump in various states.

I checked the polls for the Dems against Trump over the last 3 months.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=…

If you sum up the polls over the past 3 months and count how many times each candidate beats Trump versus loses to him in polls in these 6 key states, you find:

- Biden beats Trump more often than not in FL, PA, MI and WI.
- Sanders beats Trump more often than not in MI only.

- Warren does not beat Trump more often than lose to him in any of the 6 states.
- Buttigieg beats Trump more often than loses to him in MI only.
- Klobuchar does not beat Trump more often than loses to him in any of the 6 states - BUT - there is very limited polling for her.

Look at the states individually:
FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)

- Biden beats Trump in 3 FL polls; loses to him in 1
- Sanders beats Trump in 1 FL poll; loses to him in 2
- Warren beats Trump in 1 FL poll, loses to him in 3
- Buttigieg beats Trump in 1 FL poll, loses to him in 2

- There is no Florida poll listed on FiveThirtyEight.com showing Klobuchar versus Trump in Florida in the past 3 months.

PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes):

- Biden beat Trump in 2 PA polls, lost to him in 1
- Sanders beat Trump in 1 PA poll, lost to him in 2
- Warren beat Trump in 1 PA poll, lost to him in 2
- Buttigieg beat Trump in 0 PA poll, lost to him in 1
- No PA polls for Klobuchar v Trump

OHIO (18 Electoral Votes):
No polling in last three months against Trump for any of the leading Democratic candidates.

MICHIGAN (16 Electoral votes):

- Biden beat Trump in 3 MI polls, lost to him in 1
- Sanders beat Trump in 3 MI polls, lost to him in 1
- Warren beat Trump in 2 MI polls, lost to him in 2
- Buttigieg beat Trump in 2 MI polls, lost to him in 1
- No recent MI Klobuchar/Trump polls

WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)

- Biden beat Trump in 4 WI polls, lost to him in 2
- Sanders beat Trump in 3 WI polls, lost to him in 3
- Warren beat Trump in 1 WI poll, lost to him in 5
- Buttigieg beat Trump in 1 WI poll, lost to him in 4

WISCONSIN (continued)

- Klobuchar beat Trump in 0 WI polls, lost to him in 1

IOWA (6 electoral votes)

- None of the leading Democratic candidates have beaten Trump in a head to head poll in Iowa in the past three months. Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg are all 0-4. Klobuchar is 0-1.

Putting it all together, to summarize:

- The only states in the country that changed between the 2012 election that re-elected Obama and the 2016 election that elected Trump are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Summarizing all the polls which show different Democratic candidates against Trump in these states:

Biden beats Trump more often than not in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Sanders beats Trump more often than not in Michigan only.

There are no states among these 6 states which Trump flipped in which Warren outpolls Trump more than she loses to him.

Buttigieg wins more polls against Trump than he loses against him in Michigan only.

Very limited polling info on Klobuchar versus Trump.

* I know I messed up here by listing Wisconsin as 11 electoral votes instead of 10. My mistake.

Twitter is still working on my Edit button.