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Average projected delegates through Super Tuesday:

Sanders 608 (41% of delegates thru March 3)
Bloomberg 273 (18%)
Biden 270 (18%)
Buttigieg 157 (10%)
Warren 127 (8%)
Klobuchar 55 (4%)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
It is important to note that this this reflects an average of many different scenarios and the ranges are very wide.
What it illustrates, though: We're *not* in a 2-candidate race *right now*. We're in a race that has 1 clear but not overwhelming frontrunner, Sanders, and a lot of candidates chasing him, of whom Bloomberg may or may not be the strongest.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This thread *completely* ignores the importance of Ameircan Samoa.

Lol j/k it's smart and you should read it.
The key points IMO:
* Bernie's Super Tuesday polling has been a little weaker than you might think from his national numbers
* It's a relatively thin line between having Bernie a very good ST and a pretty good ST, and another thin line between a pretty good ST and a pretty bad ST
* The debate and South Carolina present downside risk for Sanders. (Also upside opportunities!).

I'd add to this... I'd like to see more polls but so far Sanders doesn't *seem* to be getting a huge NV bounce, which could cushion him against those downside risks.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Super Tuesday win probabilities (NOT vote share!).

Note: These may change significantly based on SC and other stuff. I'm listing everyone who's >=5%.

CA—Sanders 79%, Biden 9%, Bloomberg 6%
TX—Sanders 59%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 11%
NC—Sanders 52%, Biden 24%, Bloomberg 20%
VA—Sanders 49%, Biden 24%, Bloomberg 24%
MA—Sanders 57%, Warren 26%, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 5%
MN—Klobuchar 49%, Sanders 45%
CO—Sanders 83%, Warren 6%, Biden 6%
TN—Sanders 45%, Biden 33%, Bloomberg 17%
AL—Biden 55%, Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 18%
OK—Sanders 36%, Bloomberg 31%, Biden 26%
AR—Sanders 40%, Bloomberg 28%, Biden 22%, Buttigieg 7%
UT—Sanders 87%, Warren 5%
ME—Sanders 67%, Bloomberg 10%, Warren 9%, Buttigieg 7%, Biden 7%
VT—Sanders >99%
AS—Sanders 38%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 8%

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Polls in NV were quite good.

Final poll average
Sanders 30.5
Buttigieg 15.3
Biden 14.4
Warren 11.8
Steyer 10.2
Klobuchar 8.9

Actual 1st vote (what polls are trying to predict)
Sanders 34.0
Biden 17.6
Buttigieg 15.4
Warren 12.8
Klobuchar 9.6
Steyer 9.1

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Sanders and Biden overperformed slightly but remember that polls contain undecided voters so there are usually a couple of candidates who pick up the bulk of the undecideds. Overall, this is impressive accuracy for polling of a caucus.
The final @DataProgress poll (Sanders 35, Biden 16, Warren 16, Buttigieg 15) was particularly good.

p.s. Some folks are comparing polls that predict the initial popular vote to NV's *county delegate* numbers. That's not an 🍏-to-🍏 comparison so those folks are wrong/confused.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
NEVADA CAUCUS (50% IN)

🔹"First vote" approximates a primary.
🔹"CCD%" points to delegate totals.

After Sanders, here's how the candidates did in the primary-like "first vote" (50% in):

1⃣7⃣.1⃣ Biden
1⃣5⃣.9⃣ Buttigieg
1⃣3⃣.3⃣ Warren

9⃣.8⃣ Klobuchar
8⃣.8⃣ Steyer

0⃣.3⃣ Gabbard
PS/ Sanders won Nevada big. But a look at the data shows that not only was the primary-like "first vote" a close race for second between Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren (3.8% apart with 50% in), but the same 3 had an even closer race with one another—and Sanders—among late deciders:
PS2/ "Late deciders" are interesting, as they give a sense of where Nevada voters were at post-debate. And where they were at was bunching four candidates—Sanders, Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg—between 7% of one another, whereas the *overall*, 50%-in results have Sanders up 27.4%.
Read 4 tweets
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
ON #WARREN'S LOW BLOW

Since this will come up at the #DemDebate, I want to explain her attack on #Bernie.

When CNN leaked the story, Warren could have said: "We're friends and he was referring to the challenges women candidates face. I won't grace these leaks."

Instead...
...Warren's campaign put out a statement that effectively calls #Bernie sexist and then claims to want to move on.

The net effect is to try to damage the leading progressive in the race, which gives a big boost to the establishment wing.

Now why on earth would she do that?
People who follow me know how dedicated I am to fighting sexism. It was everything I did in 2016 and I was mocked and smeared for it when I defended Hillary.

But this isn't about sexism. It's about the incredibly questionable timing of lobbing this out there as #Bernie surges.
Read 5 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
HUGE.
#Biden & #Bernie continue to plummet. I wrote last month that #Buttigieg was the natural inheritor of voters divesting of Biden. #Warren is the natural inheritor of the left vote. #Harris, still the most charismatic candidate, has now tripled her Iowa standing since June.
This is the Democratic field. The debates both winnowed the field and reshuffled the deck. Despite massive help from MSM that included two full hours on Chris Cuomo in prime time, much spent attacking Harris and progressives, Biden fails to move his campaign forward.
Sanders has released a couple of videos vomosring himself to FDR, who was president when Sanders was born in 1941. Both Biden and Bernie focusing on the past while Harris and Warren roll out forward-thinking policy almost daily.

This is why the polls are shaking out as they are.
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets

Trending hashtags

#primaires #MeToo #Buttigieg #Bloomberg #CNN #Castro #Beto #buyingvotes #Bernie #Warren #Biden #LarryBartels #Williamson #Iowa #disability #MiniMike #TwoCent #Sanders #MSNBC #DemocraticDebate #Trump #Obama #Medicare #Harris #Nevada

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