The frontloading for Dems on Super Tuesday may turn out to be an enormous problem for any candidate's chances of getting a delegate majority.
Going from 96% of delegates left to 62% left on a single day early in the calendar means the situation on that day is quite important...
Going from 96% of delegates left to 62% left on a single day early in the calendar means the situation on that day is quite important...
The reason is Democrats' proportional delegate allocation rules.
If there's a two-way race on Super Tuesday (as was the case in 2008 and 2016), things work fine. Delegates will be split two ways, somebody will be on track for a majority.
If there's a two-way race on Super Tuesday (as was the case in 2008 and 2016), things work fine. Delegates will be split two ways, somebody will be on track for a majority.
But if 38% of delegates have been doled out and split multiple ways, with no one near 50% of total delegates so far, the proportional rules make it *very* hard to get on track for a majority. (Unless everyone else quits)
This is a problem that Trump did not face, because the GOP has many winner-take-all states that could help him get back on track for a majority. Dems have none. Their only way to rack up large delegate advantages is to win massive landslides. Close outcomes means split delegates
