Thread by @JenniferMerode

David Frost's speech: "we are clear that we want the Canada-free trade agreement type relationship, which the EU has so often said is on offer."

But there is a problem with Canada (in a Brexit sense). The EU isn’t really offering it and the UK isn’t really asking for it.

2. DF is right. The EU started it, in 2017 Michel Barnier first revealed his steps slide with Canada as the outcome of the UK’s red lines. But like it or not, EU thinking has evolved.

3. The EU is now offering a trade deal that goes beyond Canada. Instead of Canadian-style elimination of 99% of tariff lines, the EU is offering zero tariffs + zero quotas for zero dumping. i.e. level playing field.

4. What is the difference between 99% zero tariffs and 100% zero. Quite a lot. It means negotiations on individual lines. Under Canada-style deal, tariffs remain on poultry and eggs; there are quotas on beef, pork, sweetcorn.

5. The EU offer means immediate zero tariffs, whereas some Canadian zero tariffs will be phased in over 3, 5 or 7 years, depending on the item. i.e. these timetables were negotiated. And those negotiations took time.

6. Often overlooked, a free-trade agreement with tariffs means NI will have to apply relevant tariffs on goods coming from GB. A true Canada-style deal will make that Irish sea border even firmer.

7. Some in UK will accuse EU of moving the goalposts, but this will have zero effect on changing EU negotiating position.

The main reason for EU stance is geography. Canada is far away, the UK is close and today part of single market, so is a much bigger competitive risk.

8. Consensus in Brussels that line-by-line negotiation on tariffs will take far longer to negotiate than MB’s three zeros. EU will have to agree position on market opening - Ceta and TTIP show how easy that is. The Treaty of Rome is not a useful precedent here.

9. The EU is not offering Canada: but something bigger and faster to agree.
The UK is not really asking for Canada. David Davis wanted Canada +++ , while last November Boris Johnson wanted ‘Super Canada-plus’ with no alignment.

10. A traditional FTA negotiation on tariff lines is seen by the EU as impossible in 8/9 months available. Like it or not, that’s the reality. If the UK really wants a Canada-style agreement, it will need more time... who knows, maybe a Canada-style seven years.
ends.