1/6: Six tweets on six countries & the #Ukraine crisis. #US response so far calm & firm. Intelligence good, messaging clear. Leadership of #NATO/West has made some amends for Afghanistan. #China still the top US strategic concern. What would have happened if Trump was in office? 2/6: #UK slow start on sanctions but strong on military support to #Ukraine & in #NATO. Poor on refugee access & embarrassing scramble on oligarchs & dirty money. Will need to engage with #EU on security & defence. #Brexit impairs UK leverage.

1/8: #Ukraine thread. What does #Putin want? 1. Recast the post Cold War security structure of Europe, which he believes shames #Russia. 2. Integrate Ukraine into Russia. 3. Divide #NATO and weaken America.. 2/8: 4. Entrench #Russian control in its near abroad, if necessary through force - as in Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Crimea. 5. Buttress his domestic position, not with public opinion but in the political /military establishment.

1/9: #Afghanistan is a stark reminder that in foreign policy you need both to be clear about your goals and to execute them well. Over years the #US and its allies fell short on both counts. 2/9: The intervention was legitimate & justified (unlike Iraq). An act of self-defence to halt a clear international terror threat. The first purpose was not to end #Taliban rule, but to deal with a consequence of it. Of course the two rapidly merged.

1/12: Will the UK #integratedreview of security & #foreignpolicy really make a difference? It was billed as a radical reset after #Brexit & does contain important innovations. But there are many areas of continuity. A thread, now we’ve had time to digest.. 2/12: #GlobalBritain hyperbole was inevitable. A “science superpower”, a “#softpower superpower”, “an independent country free to tread our own path”. But to be fair, beneath the froth lies serious thought to frame international & domestic priorities.

1/9: The #UK government will soon publish its #IntegratedReview of defence, security, development & #ForeignPolicy. This is an important inflection point: we need a comprehensive, credible vision of the #GlobalBritain agenda after #Brexit. What to expect?.. a thread.. 2/9: The #IntegratedReview will set principles to guide individual policies, advocating agile, global British reach in support of democratic values. Johnson’s strap-line is “#UK as a force for good”. But lofty principles will only be credible if hard, practical choices are made.

1/6: Now we have the #Brexit deal we should reboot British #foreignpolicy. It needs both clear long-term priorities and agile tactical footwork. For starters, this thread suggests five early opportunities in 2021, which should also help rebuild key relationships. 2/6: First, consolidate a strong role on #climate leading up to the November #COP26 conference in Glasgow. Show that UK can exercise serious convening power. Work smartly with US, who under Biden & Kerry will want to run the show. Use it to mend fences with #EU & engage #China.

1/6: A short #Brexit retrospective as we enter the last month. Four and a half years ago we started down this path with little understanding of the route or the destination, pushed by ideologues who exploited the diverse and often reasonable grievances of many people. 2/6: Over 4 years #Brexit ideologues have driven us inexorably to more extreme forms of separation, losing the good will of European allies, sidelining our globally successful #services industries, bringing cost & uncertainty for manufacturers & farmers, putting #jobs at risk.

1/10: A win for #JoeBiden in the #USElection next week would be good for the overall interests of #UK but problematic for the #BorisJohnson government. How would the arrival of a Biden administration affect British #foreignpolicy? A thread.. 2/10: As the song says, it ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it. Not all #Trump foreign policy was bad (though much was). He made an important call on #China. But he has no idea of the common good, squandered American leadership & damaged alliances & institutions.

1/10: So, it’s four years since the #Brexit referendum. We have formally left the #EU but remain in the single market & customs union until 31 December. The future relationship beyond that is still unknown. What are the chances of a deal before the deadline? A thread... 2/10: Negotiators have just 4 months left. It will take two more after that for a deal to be ratified. If there is a deal the scope will be narrow; aiming for tariff-free & quota-free trade in goods. Little on services, never mind non-trade issues. A hard version of #Brexit.

1/11: Before #Covid19 the #geopolitical system was shifting from globalism & multilateralism towards a big power stand-off between #US & #China. The pandemic is accelerating this trend, as all major players struggle to cope. A thread on this, with input from @AlexWhite1812.. 2/11: #China, source of the outbreak, has taken a big hit. It suppressed information & numbers. The lockdown apparently worked but was harsh. China is now struggling to reverse a backlash in world opinion through propaganda, exploiting “first recoverer” status & US disarray..

1/6: Word on the street is that common sense is breaking out & government may be privately recognising that #Brexit negotiations now need to be postponed & transition extended beyond end December. This was always the right answer: here are 5 reasons why it is now doubly right... 2/6: Bandwidth. All UK & EU efforts should be devoted to tackling the massive #COVID crisis. Senior ministers & officials cannot have enough time now for the crucial business of deciding our long term relationship with #EU. And don’t forget #COP26 climate conference in Nov..

1/8: Now that we have both the UK and EU mandates for #Brexit part 2, what chance an agreement? It’s not looking great. Much will depend in the end on political will. A short thread... 2/8: In terms of practical outcomes the two “visions” of the future (if that is the word) are not that far apart. But in terms of philosophy and structure, there is an ocean between them.

1/8: David Frost’s Brussels speech was an intelligent exposition of his view on the EU & an important explanation of #Brexit thinking in the new UK government: asserting the indivisible #sovereignty of the European nation state & the primacy of political identity over the market. 2/8: But, rooted in the 18th century thought of Edmund #Burke (ironically Irish), his argument bypassed the tragic history of how these independent & “revered” nation states behaved towards each other in the 20th century. And the low confidence in today’s national governments.

1/10: We are 12 days from legal #Brexit. What will happen on 31 Jan? What will it feel like on 1 Feb? More important, what will happen after that? In a nutshell, nothing will change & everything will change. And harder choices lie ahead. Thread of 10... 2/10: On 31 Jan BJ will declare #Brexit done & hail a brave new world. Big Ben may bong. Flags will come down. But on 1 Feb we will wake to an eerily familiar world. Until Dec 31 at least all rights & obligations of EU membership continue, though we will not be at the table..

1/6: Six tweets on #NATO. It remains really important to us. A defensive alliance between the democracies of Europe & North America is indisputably a good thing. It’s far from perfect, but we are fortunate to have it & should not belittle it or take it for granted. 2/6: Through #NATO Europe still enjoys an indispensable US security umbrella, despite Trump’s intemperance. US demands for greater burden sharing are reasonable. But it’s not all one way traffic. America derives great strategic advantage from the support of allies.

1/10: Following is a thread of ten about #Brexit phase 2. If the Conservatives win a majority on 12 December there is very high likelihood UK will legally leave EU on 31 January. Far from “getting Brexit done” this would kick off another long & even more complex negotiation.. 2/10: Many of the hardest #Brexit calls have been deferred until we leave. UK & EU will need to agree on a vast range of issues. Not only trade in goods & services, but also regulatory standards, aviation, fisheries, security, science, defence, data, labour mobility & more..

1/12: A thread on geopolitical & economic change 30 years after the Cold War ended. The parts are moving fast in a period of transition and rupture. The future will not be simply an amended version of the past. 2/12: The geopolitical 21st century began in the 1999 Seattle WTO protest. In 2001 China joining the WTO was strategically more significant than 9/11. The 2008 financial crisis was the defining & formative event. More contours emerged in 2016 with Trump & Brexit.

1/9: The debate on #Brexit isn’t moving forward. At best it’s going round in circles. Or regressing to the pre Chequers era. The public positions of both Johnson & Hunt on renegotiation by October are unrealistic & they must know it. A thread of thoughts on this. 2/9: Conventional wisdom now says no deal is growing more likely. I disagree. We’ve had a good look at no deal and decided not to go there. It’s a wasting political bogeyman... unless Parliament screws up badly, which it may, or the EU force the issue, which I still doubt.

1/9: While Conservatives choose our new PM (a process clearly less democratic than a 2nd referendum) #Brexit still looms over us. Whatever they claim, will Johnson or Hunt be able to deliver an outcome? Changing the leader does not change the facts. Here’s a thread of 9 on this. 2/9: PM Johnson or PM Hunt will face the same problems as PM May. EU negotiators will still refuse significantly to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. The Commons, in which the PM will have no solid majority, will still oppose both the current deal and no deal.

1/7 So much uncertainty about what will happen next on #Brexit. See six options for the period from now to October, set out in following thread - with probabilities. Anyone agree? 2/7 Option 1: Con/Lab deal. Both have clear interest in rendering EP election meaningless by preemptive agreement on deal. Frontbenches may be able to agree, but I doubt either could sell a deal to their backbenches. Probability: 15%

We may (or may not) have a #Brexit withdrawal deal soon. Everyone is obsessing about day to day political tactics. This is short sighted. We need to think ahead. If we get a deal what would follow? Here is a thread on this. With a deal, in the short term nothing will change & everything will change. Nothing, because in a transition period we remain aligned to EU law & regulation, though without a voice in decisions. Everything, because we will be legally out & there will be no way back for years.