Thread by @pmdfoster

A crucial future #Brexit question: how much 'say' will Parliament have on Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiation mandate?

Will govt have to publish impact assessments?

Consult with regions? And Parly Cmmes?

Been doing some diggin...1/thread

So @YouGov MRP is right. @BorisJohnson wins good majority. The WAB is rammed through Parliament and we are OUT by Jan 31 2020. #Brexit is 'done', except for a small matter of a trade/security future partnership deal which Johnson says he wants done in 11 months. Which means.../2

@YouGov @BorisJohnson Devising a negotiating mandate for the UK's future trading relationship with the EU....the shape of which will have huge impact on jobs & industries, particularly in the English regions that are disproportionately exposed to #Brexit impacts...cars, pharma, agri. /3

@YouGov @BorisJohnson Curiously, as a by-product of this #brexit election Mr Johnson's triumph, if that is what it turns out to be, will be based in large part on wins in constituencies that would be hardest-hit by a pell-mell #Brexit... /4

@YouGov @BorisJohnson As @jameskirkup has written, Mr Johnson will be walking on the political waters at this point, but he will have those MPs and industry lobby groups + the vanquished forces of Remain all banging on the door warning that he risks sinking if is too reckless. /5

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup This all by way of framing - because the clock will also be ticking, particularly if by early March Mr Johnson has not sent a team of negotiators to the Berlaymont to discuss a pay-to-play deal to extend Transition, as he has promised not to do. /6

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup Even assuming Mr Johnson and his team want to 'crack on' as quickly as possible, to get up an agreed mandate in this timeframe to start formaly talks on, say March 1, leaves only the month of February to agree a mandate. So how might the Government do that? /7

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup So the brilliant @Brigid_Fowler touched on this in her thread yesterday....because there are competing fragments of information out there on this question, since we have three different deals to do:
1) EU/UK
2) 'rolling over' existing EU FTAs
3) Doing NEW FTAs, for EG with USA/8

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler Her full thread below, but the point is that in the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) Section 31 says negotiations can't start without a "statement of objectives" being agreed by the House. /9

https://twitter.com/Brigid_Fowler/status/1199681455468748800

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler The act requires:

- a statement of objectves (which can be revised)
- quarterly updates, with explanation for any deviation
- all copied to Scot, Wal, NI Assemblies /10

publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill…

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler Now, clearly if @BorisJohnson has a socking majority he can rail-road through what he likes....he will argue that all Tory MPs signed up to the manifesto, so 'chocks away' and tally-ho.

And yet by slamming the door on transition, the Govt is CHOOSING to inflict damage /11

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler There are lots of impact assessments out there (not that this govt has rushed to publish) but let's take the @NIESRorg ones here - they are ugly, but also don't capture local/short term effects for certain industries and localities. /12

niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/…

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg This is important. These 'equilibrium' models smooth pain; they don't tell you (for e.g) the hit to the car industry which will feel impacts in a much more compressed way...so yes Johnson can ignore, but do we expect victims to come quietly? /13

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1199615994165104640?s=20

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg Now the WAB does NOT specify how/what this #Brexit deal SoB containst beyond S.31(11)(c) "the main arrangements which are designed to govern the security and economic aspects of the long-term relationship"....which is to vague to be useful. /14

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg It also says nothing (and you'd not expect an Act of this kind to do this, per @Brigid_Fowler) on any kind of consultation about HOW and WITH WHOM this mandate is drawn up. A mandate that will impact the future of this country for a generation.../15

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg But as Brigid mentioned we DO have a template for such a consultation, because @LiamFox @tradegovuk released one in Feb 2019 and it makes for very interesting reading..../16

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk Link to text below, but its only 16 pages, and it speaks to a proper process of consultations for future new FTAs (not rollovers)...it promises scoping objective and economic assesments of impacts /17

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk It also promises to consult and create Parliamentary committees and the expertise thereof...

AND

Full consultation with UK regions and devolved assemblies (recognising that international treaty competence ultimately rests in Westminster)

AND with public/18

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk It's beefy stuff. Expect there's a catch. THIS paper is from @tradegovuk NOT from @DExEUgov or Cab Office and is EXPLICIT that the future EU-UK negotiation is NOT included.

Gah. That's a blow. I was getting excited there for a moment... /19

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov So, will the UK-EU deal - which covers a far greater chunck of the UK's trade...nearly half, in fact. /20

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov Now, as 14 trade experts warned in @telegraph y'day, it doesn't pay to be too hasty in these things/21

telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…

@davidtinline
@dmitryopines
@samuelmarclowe
@allierenison
@coppetainpu
@davidheniguk
@namali_mackay
@annajerzewska
@stwolpers
@guydej1
@TTIP_Tracker

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker To my knowledge (happy to be corrected) it is not clear what level of consultation the Govt WILL accept for the EU-UK deal, having bowed to the need for a Parliamentary approval...which as I say, could mean everything, and pretty much nothing. /22

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker The UK hasn't done a serious trade negotiation for 40 years and seems to be tooling up staff wise to several simultaneously....

And IF the non-EU deal is getting all this scrutiny and TLC, then why isn't the EU-UK one? Or is it? These are, and will become, I think BIG Qs. /23

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker Because (last thing) the issue with the 'Get #Brexit Done' narrative is that pretty much whichever way you dice it, doing a deal in 11 mths is going to be bumpy - see @SamuelMarcLowe here /24 @https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1200043441511653380?s=20

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker To do this electively, eschewing the time built into the agreement for an orderly exit, might look reckless, in hindsight. Those like @jameskirkup
@SamuelMarcLowe who bet on @BorisJohnson "bottling it", do so partly becuase of this /25

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker Because EVEN IF you believe gravity doesn't apply in trade, and the 'sunny uplands' away by hamstringing trade with advanced markets on our doorstep, you won't get to demonstrate that any time soon. Not in a 5-year Parliament at least. /26

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker So you can borrow money and spray it about; you can promise mitigations adn compensations to injured parties...but ultimately you're stuck on steps of No.10 saying we're chucking a load of chaff into the economy and "it'll be great". Honestly...it will. /27

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker But to prove that, you have to do a bunch of trade deals (which rolloever suggest will be inferior to EU deals they replace) which, even they work, will take time to aggregate benefit to the economy. Fractions of % of GDP a year. Glacial.../28

@YouGov @BorisJohnson @jameskirkup @Brigid_Fowler @NIESRorg @LiamFox @tradegovuk @DExEUgov @Telegraph @DavidTinline @DmitryOpines @SamuelMarcLowe @AllieRenison @CoppetainPU @DavidHenigUK @namali_mackay @AnnaJerzewska @STWolpers @guydej1 @TTIP_Tracker If I was PM, this would keep me up at night - which, before you say it, is precisely why doomsters and doubters and like me will never get near elected office. But it does nag, rather.

Apologies. That was long thread. Even for me. 29/ENDS