1/10: Following is a thread of ten about #Brexit phase 2. If the Conservatives win a majority on 12 December there is very high likelihood UK will legally leave EU on 31 January. Far from “getting Brexit done” this would kick off another long & even more complex negotiation..
2/10: Many of the hardest #Brexit calls have been deferred until we leave. UK & EU will need to agree on a vast range of issues. Not only trade in goods & services, but also regulatory standards, aviation, fisheries, security, science, defence, data, labour mobility & more..
3/10: The scale of the task will depend on the nature of the intended relationship. The Johnson idea of Future Partnership is an arm’s length, third country free trade agreement with regulatory freedoms - a radical change from our current terms with our nearest, largest market..
4/10: An FTA based deal would inevitably result in significant new obstacles to trade in services with EU. On goods, a zero tariff & zero quota outcome may be possible, but checks will still be required on the UK/EU border for customs, rules of origin and regulatory controls..
5/10: Structuring phase 2 negotiations will be complex. On EU side they involve a mix of “community” & national competences. Michel Barnier will stay to lead the overall Commission process, but it will require delicate orchestration, & member state interests will diverge..
6/10: On UK side expect David Frost to lead on phase 2 in No10 with the incoming Brexit Secretary. But negotiations will have to be conducted on a broader & more transparent basis that phase 1, involving experts widely across government & crucially devolved administrations..
7/10: In theory all this has to be buttoned up before the end of the status quo transition period in December 2020. This will not happen. An extension of 1 or 2 years can be agreed in June next year, but B Johnson rules this out, digging, it seems, another ditch to die in..
8/10: To meet the impossible December deadline negotiating mandates will be needed on both sides early in 2020 (cue more political controversy). Intense negotiations would then have to follow. Legal texts would be needed in October for any chance of ratification by December..
9/10: On ratification, given the range of issues & future commitments involved, unlike the Withdrawal Agreement the phase 2 deal(s) would need to be scrutinised by national parliaments across the EU, as well as the UK parliament..
10/10: All of which means that a no deal breakdown, although now very unlikely, and probably less severe, remains possible at the end of the transition period, particularly if UK does not seek extension.
