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New Monmouth CA Dem WH poll

Sanders 24%
Biden 17%
Bloomberg 13%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 9%
Steyer 5%
Klobuchar 4%

monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
White
Sanders 18%
Warren 18%
Bloomberg 14%
Biden 13%
Buttigieg 11%
Klobuchar 6%
Steyer 6%

Hispanic
Sanders 38%
Biden 17%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 4%
Warren 4%
Steyer 3%
Also notable in the Monmouth CA poll: 10% of respondents say they have already voted early for the March 3 primary.
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More from @SteveKornacki see all

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Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki
If the Dems flip MI and PA and trump holds WI, it would be 270-268 Trump with no other changes. Next best Dem flip possibility would probably be AZ. Or...the single electoral vote from the Omaha district in NE that Trump barely won in '16. Flip that and not AZ and it's 269-269.
And a 269-269 tie would go to the newly-elected House of representatives. But in the House each *state* gets a vote, not each member. And as of now, Republicans control more state delegations, even though Democrats have the House majority.
Seeing this a lot about ME-2. Keep in mind, Trump won ME-2 by 10 points. It is rural and loaded with non-college whites, a great demographic formula for Trump.

NE-2 is Omaha and suburbs and Trump only won it by 3 in 2016.

Read 3 tweets
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Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki
I can think of two modern cases of "factional" candidates who emerged as serious threats to win nominations after the primaries began and who were then stopped when the party united behind an alternative: Jesse Jackson in the '88 Dem race and Pat Buchanan in the '96 GOP race.
Sanders is often compared to these two, for some understandable reasons. But a big difference I keep seeing is that Sanders -- unlike Jackson/Buchanan -- has favorable/unfavorable numbers among Dem voters that are as good/better as any other candidate.
There were also clear ideological/demographic limits that hindered Buchanan and Jackson as they tried to build on success. Sanders, though, is showing more potential than other non-Biden candidates to win significant non-white support and also registers among self-ID's moderates
Read 4 tweets
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Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki
Buttigieg leads the state delegate equivalent count in Iowa right now.

Sanders leads the non-binding initial/reallocated preference totals.

I've been reporting both numbers and some are asking why. I want to share my thinking:
The argument for just showing SDEs is that they are tied to national convention delegates and, as you might have heard, it’s all about delegates.

The problem I see is that Iowa’s clout has never really been about delegates at all, since it has so few (41 this year of 3,979).
This is not a new observation. Since the caucuses began, candidates have spent massive $$ and time on the state (and media has paid massive attention to it) because it's the first indication of what actual voters make of the field -- who's strong, who's weak, etc.
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change vs last week)

Sanders: 24 (3)
Biden: 18 (0)
Warren: 16 (1)
Bloomberg: 12 (0)
Buttigieg: 11 (1)
Klobuchar: 7 (0)
Steyer: 2 (1)
Gabbard: 2 (-1)
Compared to last week, our poll shows a big dip in Bloomberg's viability, and a modest increase in the share of Democratic primary voters who say they'll consider voting for Amy Klobuchar.
Share of Democratic primary voters considering voting for each candidate (pooled over the last month):

Sanders: 45%
Biden: 45
Warren: 45
Buttigieg: 29
Bloomberg: 26
Klobuchar: 22
Steyer: 13
Gabbard: 6
Read 7 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (chg vs last week):

Biden: 26 (-3)
Sanders: 24 (6)
Warren: 20 (-1)
Buttigieg: 7 (-1)
Klobuchar: 4 (0)
Bloomberg: 4 (-2)
Yang: 4 (0)
Gabbard: 3 (1)
Steyer: 1 (-2)
Patrick: 1 (0)
Who are Democrats considering voting for?

Biden: 49%
Warren: 48
Sanders: 45
Buttigieg: 28
Klobuchar: 20
Bloomberg: 19
Booker: 18
Yang: 16
Steyer: 12
Castro: 10
Gabbard: 6
Bennet: 4
Patrick: 3
Delaney: 2
Who would they be disappointed to see win the nomination?

Gabbard: 42%
Bloomberg: 31
Delaney: 25
Biden: 23
Steyer: 23
Patrick: 23
Bennet: 21
Sanders: 20
Buttigieg: 19
Yang: 17
Klobuchar: 17
Warren: 15
Read 5 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Shem Horne
@Shem_Infinite
Biden is literally on tape bragging about this:

"The public is divided on the veracity of Trump's claim that Biden pressured Ukrainian officials to keep them from investigating his son's business ties. About four in 10 said Biden probably did exert this pressure"
These polls are all ridiculous. Fake polls and a fake media working together. 45 percent of people think President Trump put pressure on the leader of Ukraine in return for investigating Biden when that literally didn't happen. This entire poll is a disaster.
Literally a poll of barely over 1000 people with oddly worded questions and multiple WTH answers from people on both sides yet the media focuses only on the Republicans answer about Biden. The only thing more worthless than the media is these polls. monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
New Monmouth #
NH poll:
- Joe Biden 36%
- Bernie Sanders 18%
- Pete Buttigieg 9%
- Elizabeth Warren 8%
- Kamala Harris 6%
- Cory Booker 2%
- Amy Klobuchar 2%
- Beto O’Rourke 2%
- John Hickenlooper 1%
- Tim Ryan 1% ---WHAT????
- Andrew Yang 1%

All others were under 1%
More:
1/
And again, a tiny sampling:

"The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from May 2 to 7, 2019 with 376 New Hampshire voters likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary in February 2020."

Biden did best with respondents 65+
Sanders with under 50s.
2/
2nd choice:
Warren 15%
Harris 12%
Sanders 11%
Biden 11%
Buttigieg 9%
Booker 5%
O’Rourke 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Delaney 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Yang 1%
Bennet <1%
Castro <1%
Inslee <1%
Moulton <1%

Remainder at 0%
3/
Read 7 tweets
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Oliver Willis
@owillis
monmouth did a poll on socialism vs capitalism, and no surprise, capitalism won. but i think this poll result is more interesting
link monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
also this isnt a resounding vote of confidence for the current state of capitalism
Read 3 tweets

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