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If the Dems flip MI and PA and trump holds WI, it would be 270-268 Trump with no other changes. Next best Dem flip possibility would probably be AZ. Or...the single electoral vote from the Omaha district in NE that Trump barely won in '16. Flip that and not AZ and it's 269-269.
And a 269-269 tie would go to the newly-elected House of representatives. But in the House each *state* gets a vote, not each member. And as of now, Republicans control more state delegations, even though Democrats have the House majority.
Seeing this a lot about ME-2. Keep in mind, Trump won ME-2 by 10 points. It is rural and loaded with non-college whites, a great demographic formula for Trump.

NE-2 is Omaha and suburbs and Trump only won it by 3 in 2016.

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Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki
New Monmouth CA Dem WH poll

Sanders 24%
Biden 17%
Bloomberg 13%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 9%
Steyer 5%
Klobuchar 4%

monmouth.edu/polling-instit…
White
Sanders 18%
Warren 18%
Bloomberg 14%
Biden 13%
Buttigieg 11%
Klobuchar 6%
Steyer 6%

Hispanic
Sanders 38%
Biden 17%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 4%
Warren 4%
Steyer 3%
Also notable in the Monmouth CA poll: 10% of respondents say they have already voted early for the March 3 primary.
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Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki
I can think of two modern cases of "factional" candidates who emerged as serious threats to win nominations after the primaries began and who were then stopped when the party united behind an alternative: Jesse Jackson in the '88 Dem race and Pat Buchanan in the '96 GOP race.
Sanders is often compared to these two, for some understandable reasons. But a big difference I keep seeing is that Sanders -- unlike Jackson/Buchanan -- has favorable/unfavorable numbers among Dem voters that are as good/better as any other candidate.
There were also clear ideological/demographic limits that hindered Buchanan and Jackson as they tried to build on success. Sanders, though, is showing more potential than other non-Biden candidates to win significant non-white support and also registers among self-ID's moderates
Read 4 tweets
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Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki
Buttigieg leads the state delegate equivalent count in Iowa right now.

Sanders leads the non-binding initial/reallocated preference totals.

I've been reporting both numbers and some are asking why. I want to share my thinking:
The argument for just showing SDEs is that they are tied to national convention delegates and, as you might have heard, it’s all about delegates.

The problem I see is that Iowa’s clout has never really been about delegates at all, since it has so few (41 this year of 3,979).
This is not a new observation. Since the caucuses began, candidates have spent massive $$ and time on the state (and media has paid massive attention to it) because it's the first indication of what actual voters make of the field -- who's strong, who's weak, etc.
Read 8 tweets

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snarke
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Welcome to today's #Trump #ImpeachmentTrial thread (potentially one of a few)! I've been playing around with tags a little in other tweets this morning but for now, I'm going to stick with the two I've used here. That may change later on, though. Follow/mute at will!
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snarke
@snarke
Okay y’all, here we go (again). The Senate is voting on #Trump’s bill to reopen the government.

#ShutdownVote
Doesn’t look like it’s gonna make it, y’all. It needs 60 votes to pass and we’re already at 46 No votes.

Shocker.

#Trump #ShutdownVote
Now for the Dem’s bill to reopen the government. It already passed the house. Likelihood it will pass the Senate? Slim. Likelihood it will get signed by #Trump even if it does?

Well, I’d say slimmer, but dude wants to go on TV next week, so who knows?

#ShutdownVote
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Greg Palast
@Greg_Palast
#Trump was not elected president because he did not win the electoral vote via @RealTimBlack #TimBlackShow #Resist
#Trump used the same trick as George W did in Florida. By removing voters of color in 28 states, Trump supposedly won the electoral college.
#Trump is not our legitimate president, rather he's the Commander-in-Thief! via @RealTimBlack #TimBlackShow #Resist
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