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#ChinaEcon For #CCPchinaInc this is worse than Globbal Financial Crisis(GFC), bcs (1) Debt/GDP is already V high, (2) Cntrys with China trade deficits(USA, India) will resist subsidized dumping of exports, (3) It hits supply(labor) in addition to demand. Forcst 2020 GDP gr 1-3%
2/Ch #ChinaEcon This can only restore economy to previous levels, but wont help generate sustained GDP growth beyond the trend growth of real Household consumption in last 2 decades
3/ch #ChinaEcon #CCPchinaInc's Real GDP growth will return to its long run sustainable average of 4.5% +/- 0.5% by 2021 (Official growth will of course be much higher then my predicted growth during both 2020 & 2021)
4/ch Further analysis, shedding light on my hypothesis (proposed > month ago) that #ChinaGr for 2020 will fall to 1% to 3% (with official much higher)
5/ch #ChinaEcon Q1 2020 GDP Gr will be -10% to -30% (yoy). Don't know whether to laugh or cry at 👇🏼
7/ch #ChinaEcon #CCPchina #CCPchinaInc Reiterate #China GDP growth forecast: 2020 Q1 = -10% to -30% , CY 2020 = 1% to 3% ;
8/ch #ChinaEcon Worse than #GFC as my first tweet👆🏼 in thread suggested
11/ch #ChinaEcon #CCPchinaInc The fall in export orders is more significant, because part of it is diversion to higher cost producers in other countries(i.e. effect of china supply disruptions on World GDP will be moderated)
12/ch #ChinaEcon on #IndiaEcon Primary -ve effect on #India will be through supply of intermediate goods (components, parts, chemicals, API). This impact will be highest in industry where #China has near monopoly. It will be least where there r higher cost Indian subst/suppliers
14/ch #CCPchinaInc, #ChinaEcon, with -17% Export gr in Jan-Feb 2020 (YoY) #China is on track for a predicted GDP growth rate of -10% to -30% in Q1 of 2020:…
15/ch #CCPchinaInc #CCPecon Compare my months old forecast for #China Q1 2020 GDP gr (-10% to -30%) with: //
16/ch #ChinaEcon #CCPchinaInc Not a surprise when economy tanks by -10% to -30%…
17/ch Current position of #Labor #Supply (migrant workers) = - 50 million (below Nov 2019 level), as per official data (hidden gem in this long article):
18/ch #ChinaEcon Compare my forecast of -10% to -30% GDP growth(YoY) in Q1 of 2020 with 👇🏼 & remember my forcst of 1%-3% GDP gr for CY 2020:
19/ch #ChinaEcon #CCPchinaInc This doesn't even capture the fall in #ContactServices (air travel, hotels, resteraunts, malls, entertainment), it's mostly about goods & their sale:
20/ch Investment will collapse, not just in Q1 but also in Q2 & likely in Q3(yoy)
21/ch If 1/2 of electricity is used by industry it suggests a 45% decline in production
22/ch #ChinaEcon As Q1 nears its end(1 week left)finally a frcst for China GDP growth which falls within the range of -10% To -30% which I predicted months ago:
25/ch Recall my months old forecast of < -10% growth rate (yoy) for Q1 GDP in #China ie contraction of 10% or more:
26/ch #CCPchina GDP growth is likely ~ -13.5% for Q1 of 2020:
27/ch #ChinaEcon #ChinaMacro: (Believe it or Not, but) Save all the detailed data such as
28/ch #CCPchinaInc GDP decline => Unemployment rise:
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