When do we hit a 2°C-and-rising world?
As the average global temperature passes 1.5°C (betw 2022- 2034) then 1.6C, 1.7C, etc, the dangers will multiply with ever-increasing (one might even suggest exponential) intensity.
'A global rise in temperature of just 2C would be enough to threaten life as we know it.
But leading climate scientists think even this universally agreed target will be missed'
Some suggest 2.5- 4C is also unavoidable, as we'll see later.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
I think we'll hit 2C by 2029- 2043.
Let's see what scientists have to say...
'By 2030, under a business-as-usual scenario, Pliocene-like conditions become the closest match for most land areas'
'Under a moderate climate action scenario, like the lax pledges of the Paris Agreement, that could be extended..to 2040'grist.org/article/welcom…
Emissions have risen even higher since then, and they're still rising.
@MichaelEMann recently suggested 2C was challenging, but staying below or around 2.5C (terrible calamity) was still achievable.
theconversation.com/limiting-globa…
This article is from 4 years ago.
Energy demand hasn't gone down.
(I've seldom seen anyone refer to this report. What do scientists make of it?)theguardian.com/environment/20…
Article:
amp.france24.com/en/20200114-ne…
(Also:
~3C by 2060 is possible/likely though by no means inevitable
4- 5C by 2080 is plausible)
See thread:
If we were to warm 0.3C per decade for 2 decades we'd hit 2C by around 2040.
1.5C by 2030 (if not before) looks very likely to me.
Whether we hit 2C in 2029 or 2065, in terms of geological time the rate is utterly dramatic and will have grave consequences for much life on Earth.
Ice melt, sea level rise, and superstorms:
'evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming is highly dangerous'.
I'd add global food chaos.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-en…
We're at 1.3/1.4C today.
1.5C could mean total catastrophe is locked in, nevermind 2C.
In fact 0.5-1C was enough to trigger feedbacks like Arctic ice it would seem.
See thread for details:
I'd guess we'll hit unimaginably horrific 3C before 2085, but we'll need to see what happens with emissions this decade.
Peter Wadhams thinks we'll exceed 4C.
Follow the trail if you dare 💚: 👇