Thread by @NumbersMuncher

I don't think people appreciate just how much the coronavirus outbreak can upend supply chains and really hurt the economy quickly.

Just a quick look at my small business to illustrate what we're dealing with already due to the #coronavirus shutdown around China. 1/7

First, I know I'm a tiny business, but even big ones are dealing with these problems.

We keep typically about 3-4 months of inventory (sometimes more, sometimes less if items sell better/worse than expected).

Nothing has left China since before Chinese New Year (mid-Jan). 2/7

That means we're already a month since anything has been produced, and most suppliers are either still completely down or partly down.

In addition, these manufacturers rely on other suppliers to finish products, so even if they're up... they need boxes/labels/materials/etc. 3/7

So in our case, our supplier is trying to get going, but they can't get all of the materials needed to produce the finish product and they don't even have clearance to officially open yet.

That means I will get no products for *at least* 70 days... and it's already been 30. 4/7

We will begin running out of products in mid-March, which means prices online will begin to rise as our competitors will have one less person to match with.

It means there will be fewer retail sales overall as inventory dries up, and prices likely jump as supply falls. 5/7

Again, it's possible China (and others) get back to normal quickly, but it does not sound promising and companies will be burning through remaining inventories in the next month or so.

I just don't think people are fully pricing in the ripple effects of a prolonged shutdown. 6/7

No one knows what is going to happen with #coronavirus, but if companies lack inventory to sell, that will impact sales, profits, jobs, productivity, etc...

For us, if manufacturers do not get back up soon my workload will drop significantly starting in just a few weeks. 7/7