A short thread on gender, party ID, and the Wisconsin primary. The gender balance of the parties in Wisconsin is different than during recent past presidential elections. A significant number of men have changed their partisanship, shifting from the Democrats to the GOP. 
In 2012-16 men split 48% R to 42% D. In 2017-20, 53R/36D. The party ID split of Wisconsin women has not systematically changed. This means that:
(1) The relative size of the Wisconsin Democratic party has shrunk.
(2) The Democratic party is now proportionally more female.
(1) The relative size of the Wisconsin Democratic party has shrunk.
(2) The Democratic party is now proportionally more female.
Here's the shift.
In 2012-16 we found the state to be 48% Dem and 43% Rep, including independents who leaned to a party.
In 2017-20 we've found a narrower split. Now it's 45% Rep and 44% Dem.
The WI Dem party was 58% female in 2012-16. Since then it has averaged 62% female.
In 2012-16 we found the state to be 48% Dem and 43% Rep, including independents who leaned to a party.
In 2017-20 we've found a narrower split. Now it's 45% Rep and 44% Dem.
The WI Dem party was 58% female in 2012-16. Since then it has averaged 62% female.
Even within the Democratic party, men and woman sometimes have different candidate preferences. Here is the support for each Democratic presidential candidate by gender in the latest Marquette poll.
The MOE is really big for each individual estimate, so I combine all 6 primary polls going back to August 2019. This months-long average does not reflect the most current levels of support for each candidate, but the direction of the gender differences remains the same.
Warren is more popular with women (+6%). Sanders is less popular (-7%). Klobuchar & Biden might be more popular with women, but the differences are small. Gabbard receives support from 3% of male voters but 0% of women. Buttigieg has the most equal support from men and women.
You can read more here: law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/20…
