Good evening. Following Bernie’s 3-for-3 early state victories, Joe Biden has a chance to revive his floundering campaign with a win in tomorrow’s South Carolina primary.
It’s unclear whether a resounding Biden win would give him adequate momentum to overcome his yawning polling deficits in the 13 states voting three days later on Super Tuesday. Many of these votes are already locked in through early voting.
Nevertheless a Biden victory would position him as the consensus Stop Bernie candidate and forestall a 4-for-4 early state sweep that would make a Bernie nomination all but inevitable.
There is anecdotal evidence that Biden’s support in South Carolina is soft. Recent polling however suggests he has a commanding lead, and that both Bernie’s surge and Biden’s collapse have been reversed in the past week.
Tom Steyer has been polling unexpectedly well in South Carolina. I predicted he would get 3rd in Nevada—he ended up in 6th. That’s reason enough to surmise he will suffer a similar collapse here.
Another factor is the supposed Republican campaign to turn out their voters for Bernie (South Carolina has open primaries). If similar past campaigns are any indication (e.g., Operation Chaos 2008) there is no real evidence to suggest this will be a significant factor.
Despite Bernie’s superior organization and popularity among nonwhite voters (who are likely to be a majority tomorrow), Biden’s strength is real, and his lead is likely too big to be overcome by all but the most favorable conditions for Bernie tomorrow.
My South Carolina call:
1. Joe Biden
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Pete Buttigieg
4. Tom Steyer
5. Elizabeth Warren
6. Amy Klobuchar
15% statewide threshold somewhere from just above Buttigieg to just below Steyer.
1. Joe Biden
2. Bernie Sanders
3. Pete Buttigieg
4. Tom Steyer
5. Elizabeth Warren
6. Amy Klobuchar
15% statewide threshold somewhere from just above Buttigieg to just below Steyer.
