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@JeremyKonyndyk @sciencecohen @HelenBranswell @mlipsitch @SCBriand Question from non-health journo trying to clarify news from @DrTedros yesterday. The announcement of 3.4 fatality rate has been reported by a number of major news orgs as signaling that COVID-19 is ...
2/ substantially more deadly than has been understood to date. My understanding was that he was saying something more specific and technical - that this was the percentage of reported deaths to date relative to confirmed/reported cases. And we strongly assume that in ...
3/ Iran or the US and other countries we still have a dramatic underreporting of the true/suspected number of cases. Any insight, expert guidance, etc on piecing this together is greatly appreciated.
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Josh Marshall
@joshtpm
Good point from Van Jones. This is looking like a storming night for Biden. But if it continues to go well for him his supporters will need to find ways to make this palatable for the supporters of other candidates, particularly Sanders, who are experiencing a harsh reversal ...
2/ of fortune. Obviously there's still a very good chance Sanders ends the night with more delegates. So it's certainly not like Sanders campaign is over. But whoever wins, afterwards the winner has to craft a story that allows the losers to come on board.
3/ And for those saying the Sanders campaign has made few efforts to do the same, I think that's largely true. But life's not fair and that really doesn't change anything.
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Josh Marshall
@joshtpm
At TPM we have deep and longstanding email relationships with readers around the country. Many going back many years. So we get updates from around the country. I'm struck by how much people are hearing from their employers, often big national corps or local govts ...
2/ all while hearing very little from the national government. Some of this makes sense. Local governments are the front line. But it's a consistent theme. Things unfolding rapidly in your company, various updates from the county or school district but much less information ...
3/ from the federal government about what the big picture is, what's happening.
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Josh Marshall
@joshtpm
Journalists do a great disservice to reality when every candidate but Sanders (or maybe Warren) is labeled a "moderate". Labels are inherently subjective. But to the extent political labels have any meaning this just wrong. Most of the candidates are standard center-left or ...
2/ perhaps establishment liberals. Klobuchar and Pete have definitely run to the right of Sanders and Warren and even Biden. But all of these candidates are running on platforms that are significantly to the left of Barack Obama. A big reason that calling these folks ...
3/ "moderates" is that most of the folks who used to be the moderate Dems in the Senate aren't there anymore.
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Erik Townsend 🛢️
@ErikSTownsend
1/THREAD: #2019nCoV Fatality Rate

Let's get serious about understanding the true fatality rate of nCoV. The widely publicized estimates of 2-3% were determined by dividing CURRENT death toll by CURRENT case count.

That is badly flawed logic, and yields misleading results!
2/ The problem is that the denominator (case count) is growing exponentially, and there is a lag period between time of diagnosis and when death might be expected. @chrismartenson explained this on last night's @MacroVoices podcast.

Dr. Martenson suggested using a 7-day lag
@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 3/ Nobody knows the "correct" lag factor, but using Dr. Martenson's 7 day suggestion, we divide the current death toll of 213 by the Jan. 24 case count of 1287. THAT YIELDS A CASE FATALITY RATE OF 16.55%!!!

I'm NOT saying that 16.55% is the "correct" case fatality rate, because
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