Thread by @Trinhnomics

Morning - gloomy day in Hong Kong today & not much data out today except Singapore retail sales later for Jan. Let's talk about some market movers & cool monitors u can set up.

U can see that markets were up in the US last night on Biden & off the chart good service ISM 👇🏻

The anecdotes from this survey is off the chart positive & it jumped to 57.3 from 55.5 & new orders also off the chart at 63.1 from 56.9. Seems like they are happy w/ H1 for most of them.

US non-manu ISM vs China non-manu PMI (state): look at the divergence.

Question: Will the US look like China soon? From the anecdotal survey it doesn't look like it but one can't help but wonder 🧐

US manu & service ISM vs China manu & service ISM (using state data).

Look at the collapse of February soft data for China 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻.

So if u have a Bloomberg, u can see how much an asset has moved certain markets by dragging when the news broke into the GMM monitor (Type GMM GO).

Then u see the below: off the chart ISM moved SPX +3% & 30y +8.6bps. That's a lot. Crude also dropped.

Investors seemed relieved w/ a stronger foundation for the US before the virus hits the US

Anyway, u can also set up other sorts of monitors. There are static ones but also ones w/ sub-components.

U can see SPX still down ytd. I set %d,5d & ytd & P/E, selling pressure etc...

As I am not an equity strategist/investor, I like to see this rather quickly if I need to think about it so it's set up so I can zoom in if I need. If u zoom out, u can see the sub-component. Twitter & Netflix outperforming SPX for example. These tech valuations are off the chart

Obvs as the thread says, what this virus hits is people & people going to work & willing to spend $. As American firms are global, they will feel it. So if u stroll down to consumer discretionary, u can see some pricing of downward earnings there (cruises, casinos, hotels etc) 👇🏻

Here is consumer discretionary for South Korea KOSPI - somehow Hankook cosmetics up (beauty key I suppose):

What's interesting is that China's SHCOMP consumer discretionary not getting hit as hard as the KOSPI or SPX

A lot of green despite pretty bad data so far (worst than ever)

Okay, let's juxtapose that to Hong Kong HSI (has Chinese firms here too): definitely more red esp energy & consumer discretionary. Financials not feeling too great either. So something is very different for onshore Chinese equities - prices immune to expectations of earnings???

Here is the Nikkei 225 (Japan) - consumer discretionary ALL RED ytd, which makes sense. So something is different for onshore consumer discretionary for sure 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Here is Singapore Strait Times Index: Also all red for consumer discretionary (makes sense as who's flying around now unless they need to). As the name implies, this is discretionary not essential.

Here is Malaysia FTSE: consumer discretionary also ALL RED. So something is special about onshore Chinese equities:

Here is Thailand consumer discretionary: lower earnings priced in - look at the double digits red (note that Thailand is the most exposed given high tourism share of GDP). Something is specially about onshore Chinese equities...

Taiwan consumer discretionary also all red (lower earnings priced in). So something is specially about onshore Chinese equities 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Finally, the Philippines: also all red ytd. Makes sense. Fewer people traveling, shopping, going to restaurants etc. So why is China worst than ever service & manu PMI not showing up in equity prices?

Thailand CPI slows to 0.7% from 1% in February & core rose slightly but still sub 1% & all shows that demand shocks are strong on prices.

China CPI & trade next wk. Food prices have been strong in China due to supply shocks (demand down).

Asian data will show economic impact.