Good morning🌞: Markets meltdown overnight on fear of services not being able to recover income losses from people hiding out vs taking risk. And to throw fuel to the fire, markets paying attention to Bullard saying that maybe data won't warrant another cut after the 50bps.
After -50bps, Mr. Markets want MOOORE & pricing in a lot of cuts (25bps for the upcoming morning of 19 March HKT).
Before Fed we get the ECB. Markets will continue to pressure the Fed until it relents while US data was strong in Feb & has to forward look on backward data.
Before Fed we get the ECB. Markets will continue to pressure the Fed until it relents while US data was strong in Feb & has to forward look on backward data.
So what was the data that Bullard was talking about (non-voting & not key decision maker), non-farm payroll, CPI & PPI, and retail sales (all Feb data).
So the Fed has to make the call on US Q2 2020 GDP on mid Q1 data before the virus hits. Mr. Markets wants moooore!!!
Btw...
So the Fed has to make the call on US Q2 2020 GDP on mid Q1 data before the virus hits. Mr. Markets wants moooore!!!
Btw...
So don't forget that after laying low because of the virus in Feb & early March, China will release data in 10 days:
Next wk: CPI & PPI + trade (or lack there of)
Feb monetary data
and most importantly: Feb IP, retail sales, FAI.
All to be weak given worst than ever PMIs.
Next wk: CPI & PPI + trade (or lack there of)
Feb monetary data
and most importantly: Feb IP, retail sales, FAI.
All to be weak given worst than ever PMIs.
So u're like, well, China shut down in Feb & slowly recover in March & we got the rest of the world slowly getting infected (Italy, South Korea, Japan, USA, Europe etc), what about this amazing country that we're supposed to be sheltering from? India?
This news broke last night
This news broke last night
Japan opens in 22 mins & futures are down. So we're talking about:
USA (increasingly infected growth wise although strong before the virus hits)
Japan contracted before the virus so won't be better after
China slowed before & gonna hurt in Q1
Korea slowed before & will defo slow.
USA (increasingly infected growth wise although strong before the virus hits)
Japan contracted before the virus so won't be better after
China slowed before & gonna hurt in Q1
Korea slowed before & will defo slow.
Services % of GDP:
China: 53.3% (note Feb PMIs show that services collapsed & will recover in March & April, like slow & can't recover & income losses gone). Don't forget manu lowest ever too
Japan: 70% (note that it already contracted in Q4 & don't get excited about 2020)
China: 53.3% (note Feb PMIs show that services collapsed & will recover in March & April, like slow & can't recover & income losses gone). Don't forget manu lowest ever too
Japan: 70% (note that it already contracted in Q4 & don't get excited about 2020)
Also whenever you see people buying on hopism (China stimulus massive), u have to ask, how much is based on realism?
China nominal GDP roughly 14trn USD & if it does GFC (10% of GDP) style stimulus then need 1.4trn!
Do u think we'll get that on system that's leveraged (3XGDP)?
China nominal GDP roughly 14trn USD & if it does GFC (10% of GDP) style stimulus then need 1.4trn!
Do u think we'll get that on system that's leveraged (3XGDP)?
