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Our new polls in Maine and Arizona find Sara Gideon leading Susan Collins 47-43 and Mark Kelly leading Martha McSally 47-42.

That now means our most recent polls in 4 GOP held Senate seats have found at least a 4 point Democratic lead:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
We also had a private poll last week that found Cal Cunningham leading Thom Tillis 46-41, and our most recent Colorado poll found John Hickenlooper leading Cory Gardner 51-38:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Last spring we had Collins leading Gideon 51-33. The reason for the 22 point shift since then is Collins has lost almost all of her traditional crossover support in the wake of her impeachment vote: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
A year ago Collins had a 32% approval rating with Clinton voters. Now it's 9%.

A year ago Collins trailed Gideon only 59-28 with Clinton voters. Now it's 81-10:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Overall Collins has a 33% approval rating, to 57% of voters who disapprove.

She *has* improved her position with Trump voters though. 59/26 approval, compared to 42/47 last spring:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
We found last fall that impeachment was going to hurt Collins no matter which way she went. She chose the path that made the primary easier but the general harder.

Because of that, one outcome of impeachment may be giving Democrats the Senate.

Speaker Pelosi with that 3D chess
The Arizona Senate picture is pretty steady. We had Kelly up 46-42 in January and 47-42 now. He has a 50-29 advantage with independents.

McSally has a 37% approval rating, with 46% disapproving. 41/29 favorability for Kelly:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
One thing making life harder for both Collins and McSally is Trump's standing in their states. He's at 42/56 approval in Maine and 45/51 approval in Arizona: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Trump only lost Maine by 3 points in 2016. Now he trails both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders by 10 points there at 52-42.

Trump won Arizona by 4 points in 2016. He trails Biden 48-47 and leads Sanders 47-46 there now:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Our Maine and Arizona polls show once again that if voters opposed to Trump come around the eventual Democratic nominee this fall, the election is not likely to even be terribly close: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Voters in Maine who are undecided in Biden-Trump support Sanders 58-3.

Voters who are undecided in Sanders-Trump support Biden 56-8.

If those folks voted the same way whether candidate was Biden or Sanders, the leads would go from 10 for both to 13 for Biden and 14 for Sanders
Similar story in AZ.

Undecideds in Biden/Trump give Trump a 6/57 approval.

Undecideds in Sanders/Trump give Trump a 2/68 approval.

If those folks end up voting based on whether they approve of Trump, Biden and Sanders would both be up 4 in Arizona:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
The head to heads polls for Biden and Sanders with Trump are already decent. But if Biden people get behind Sanders or Sanders people get behind Biden when the primary is over, they could instantly be 3-4 points better than they are right now: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Trump does not have enough support to get reelected. His only path is disunity among the voters who oppose him. The election is a toss up even if they don't get on the same page. But if they do get on the same page, it may not even be close: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
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More from @ppppolls see all

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PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Our new poll with @ProtectOurCare finds that voters are very concerned with the virus despite Trump’s flippancy and that it’s hurting his political standing: protectourcare.org/wp-content/upl…
72% are concerned about the effect of the virus on the economy, including 36% ‘very concerned’

57% are concerned about themselves or someone in their family getting sick, including 24% ‘very concerned’

Poll was done mostly Monday, that would likely be higher now
Voters say by a 20 point margin they’re less likely to vote for Trump because of his handling of the virus.

His approval was already only 41/55, including 33/62 with independents:

protectourcare.org/wp-content/upl…
Read 5 tweets
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PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
We did some general election polling in Arizona and Iowa and found that the only thing keeping Trump from being in terrible shape is disunity among the voters who don't like him: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
In AZ Trump is tied with Biden, up 1 on Sanders, 2 on Warren, and 3 on Buttigieg. Not great numbers in a state he won by 4. But when you look at undecideds in each match more than 80% disapprove of Trump, and they voted for Clinton by at least 45 points: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
If undecideds in AZ voted based on their Trump approval or disapproval Biden and Warren would be up by 6, Sanders and Buttigieg by 4.

If they voted based on 2016 vote, Biden would be up by 4 and the rest would be up by 2:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrat…
Read 7 tweets
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PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Our new poll in North Carolina- a state Trump won by 4 points- finds that there are more voters who want to impeach him (48%) than there are who approve of him (46%):

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-tr…
Trump has a 46/51 approval spread in NC.

Voters are evenly divided on impeachment, 48/48.

Only 7% of voters who disapprove of Trump are opposed to impeachment. Disapproval and support for impeachment are coming closer and closer to one and the same:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-tr…
Trump trails Biden 51-46, Warren 49-46, and Sanders 50-47 in NC. Ties Harris at 47%, leads Buttigieg 47-46.

Electability differences are overblown. Trump gets 46-47% no matter who Dem is. Dems get different levels of support depending on level of fame:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/trump-tr…
Read 10 tweets

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Dan Mauer
@dan_mauer
Those of you following my Twitter know how crucial I think the #PROAct is for the future of America's working class, so you can imagine how excited I am that the House passed it yesterday! To celebrate, here's a thread explaining why the bill's so key for workers in Gif form
The key underlying point is that the #PROAct gives workers more power on the job and control over our own destiny.
The #PROAct bans intimidating, undemocratic, mandatory "captive audience" meetings that companies use to terrify workers and scare folks away from organizing
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Steven Dennis
@StevenTDennis
Susan Collins' fall in Morning Consult polling in the age of Trump is just stunning.
In the fall of 2015, Susan Collins scored a 78% approval rating, and just 16% disapproval.

She was the most popular Republican in the Senate in her home state, despite representing blue Maine.
Latest polling by Morning Consult has Susan Collins as the most unpopular senator in America, with 52% disapproval, beating out McConnell's 50%.

(Her approval at 42% is higher than a bunch of other senators but still down 36 points from 2015).
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Sheila G KAG2020! NV 🇺🇸🇺🇸
@TheSheilaG2020
To our Republican members in Congress:
@Senatemajldr @HouseGOP @GOPLeader @SenateGOP cc @POTUS @realDonaldTrump @TrumpWarRoom @MattWolking @HoganGidley45 @mercedesschlapp @GopChairwoman

Impeachment Proceedings

Just to be sure you have clear understanding of my/our
expectations - we expect you to fight it all of the way! We expect you to immediately launching counter attacks at every level
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all federal tax returns (personal, corporate, estate, trust) along with all schedules and all wage and income statements. Force the vote - we know it won't pass. 2)pick 2 liberal judges and begin impeachment, 3) pick a democrat senator and start censuring procedures. Simply said
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Jake Sternberger
@JakeSternberger
Today's #PASD37 election matters in a big way for big picture #PApolitics going into 2020. In 2018, Dems flipped 5 state senate seats, leaving Dems just 4 seats away from control. A @PamForPa victory brings Dems just 3 seats away from an effective majority. (1/6)
What does that post-Iovino-victory path to 3 pickups look like? The first 2 targets are obvious. First, there’s #PASD9 in Delaware + Chester counties, held by GOP’s Tom Killion. #PASD9 has a DPI of 51.6%, Wolf won it in 2018 w/ 62%, Casey w/ 60%, and Clinton w/ 55% in '16. (2/6)
Second, there’s #PASD49 in Erie County held by GOP’s Dan Laughlin. #PASD49 has a DPI of 54.4%, Wolf won it with 61%, Casey with 60%, Clinton with 49%. The third seat to flip is where it gets more difficult. But there are GOP-held senate seats w/ numbers similar to #PASD37. (3/6)
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TrumpsTaxes
@TrumpsTaxes
📣NEW JERSEY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC CONTENDERS THREAD📣

Few states give us a greater % of potential red-to-blue flips then The Garden State.

There are currently 5 GOP-held House seats in NJ, AND 100% OF THEM ARE FLIPPABLE.

If we take all 5, we can take the House!

Spread the word!
In #NJ02 Democrat Jeff Van Drew (@VanDrewForNJ) is running to FLIP this open-GOP seat. His opponent is the aptly named, and openly bigoted, Seth Grossman (seriously…Google him). Jeff is a dentist, a state senator, and a small business owner who will fight for ALL New Jerseyans.
In #NJ03 Democrat Andy Kim (@AndyKimNJ) is running to FLIP this seat held by Tom MacArthur. Andy served in the Obama Administration on counter-terrorism and national security matters, and will actually work to protect his constituents’ healthcare, unlike Rep. MacArthur.
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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
Hey #ARIZONA Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018! with photos, Twitter & Websites
& VOTER INFO links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
#VoteBlueAZ
Register by October 9
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#AZ01 #AZ02 #AZ03 #AZ04 #AZ05 #AZ06 #AZ07 #AZ08 #AZ09
VOTER REGISTRATION in #ARIZONA:
Register to Vote Online here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/…
Check Registration here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Regi…
Find Status of Provision Ballot here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Prov…
Find Polling Place here: voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/Poll…

VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
Early Voting in #Arizona #PrimaryElection
Aug 1 - Aug 28
Register to be a permanent early voter here: servicearizona.com/webapp/evoter/…
Application here: azsos.gov/sites/default/…
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