1. You came up with 7 unscientific estimates ranging wildly from 586k to 8m. Why not just present one rigourous estimate? Because you want clickbait.
@JeffreyGoldberg, this is an embarrassing piece for @TheAtlantic to publish. You wouldn’t allow this for any other country.
@JeffreyGoldberg, this is an embarrassing piece for @TheAtlantic to publish. You wouldn’t allow this for any other country.
2. @gcaw, if you had bothered to do any actual research you’d know that the Iranian ministry of health has acknowledged over 16,000 hospitalisations likely linked to COVID19. The ~7k cases you refer to are those that have been confirmed with testing.
bourseandbazaar.com/news-1/2020/3/…
bourseandbazaar.com/news-1/2020/3/…
3. Is 16k the likely extent of the outbreak? No, because lots of people are not presenting to hospitals.
Could it be many times higher? Yes.
But is the way to examine this issue 7 bullshit back-of-the-envelope extrapolations to get to 8 million cases—ie 10% Iranians? No.
Could it be many times higher? Yes.
But is the way to examine this issue 7 bullshit back-of-the-envelope extrapolations to get to 8 million cases—ie 10% Iranians? No.
4. Among your seven calculations, you actually extrapolated a national infection rate from the number of MPs who have been infected! That’s like me saying that one US senator is in self-quarantine so the number of Americans in self-quarantine must be 3.2 million. Profoundly dumb.
5. Also why not take a little bit more time and actually try to speak to Iranian doctors on background about how they are managing and what they believe the extent of the outbreak to be? Why are they voiceless in your analysis? Let them tell you which estimate seems accurate.
6. This certainly isn’t journalism and it definitely isn’t useful, clarifying, or edifying analysis.
The only thing it shows us is that to the extent there is incompetence or cruelty in Iran, pundits are given license to write dumb takes. @TheAtlantic is better than this.
The only thing it shows us is that to the extent there is incompetence or cruelty in Iran, pundits are given license to write dumb takes. @TheAtlantic is better than this.
